NBA games

TOR @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
11098
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR19312634110
POR1231312498

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home POR
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 35 22 6 4
Brandon Ingram S 35 20 7 3
Immanuel Quickley S 34 20 8 7
Scottie Barnes S 35 15 9 4
Ochai Agbaji 22 10 4 1
RJ Barrett S 21 10 6 3
Gradey Dick 24 10 2 1
Jamison Battle 9 3 0 0
Jonathan Mogbo 4 0 1 0
Jamal Shead 20 0 3 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 22 21 1 7
Shaedon Sharpe S 32 21 7 4
Toumani Camara S 37 16 6 2
Donovan Clingan S 29 13 16 2
Caleb Love 29 11 4 3
Jerami Grant 26 8 2 2
Javonte Cooke 9 5 2 0
Sidy Cissoko S 33 3 3 1
Yang Hansen 7 0 3 0
Rayan Rupert 16 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Sandro Mamukelashvili · 3PT (3 pts) · 9:45 Q1
"Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Brandon Ingram assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
4 Deni Avdija POR
9%
5 Toumani Camara POR
9%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
8%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
8 Jrue Holiday POR
7%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
6%
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
38%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 27.3 6.9 7.3
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 24.3 7.0 6.5
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.2 5.0 4.0
4 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.8 6.3 3.9
5 Jerami Grant POR 20.7 4.7 3.1
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 20.6 3.8 6.1
7 RJ Barrett TOR 19.7 4.5 3.3
8 Caleb Love POR 16.8 3.9 3.8
9 Jrue Holiday POR 15.1 4.6 6.0
10 Toumani Camara POR 14.8 4.6 2.5
11 Donovan Clingan POR 13.1 10.4 2.6
12 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 13.0 5.9 2.7
13 Jamal Shead TOR 11.0 2.4 6.1
14 Gradey Dick TOR 8.1 3.0 1.1
15 Sidy Cissoko POR 8.1 2.9 1.2
16 Kris Murray POR 6.7 2.9 1.3
17 Robert Williams III POR 5.7 5.9 0.9
18 Rayan Rupert POR 5.1 2.0 1.2
19 Ochai Agbaji TOR 4.9 2.3 0.8
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.9 1.2 0.8
21 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.2 1.9 0.6
22 Jamison Battle TOR 3.8 1.9 0.7
23 Alijah Martin TOR 3.1 1.5 0.8
24 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.0 2.2 0.6
25 Yang Hansen POR 2.1 1.2 0.6
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.0 0.9 0.6
27 Duop Reath POR 2.0 1.6 0.4
28 Javonte Cooke POR 1.5 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.