NBA games

IND @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
117–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND39193128117
OKC28253229114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home OKC
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 36 27 7 11
Jarace Walker S 31 26 4 3
Pascal Siakam S 37 21 6 6
Aaron Nesmith S 36 17 5 5
Micah Potter 25 10 10 1
Ben Sheppard 14 6 1 2
T.J. McConnell 19 6 2 3
Johnny Furphy S 33 4 10 3
Isaiah Jackson 6 0 6 0
Jay Huff 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 47 4 4
Chet Holmgren S 33 25 13 3
Kenrich Williams 28 12 7 4
Cason Wallace S 30 10 5 1
Isaiah Joe S 30 7 2 1
Ousmane Dieng 14 7 2 1
Jaylin Williams 22 2 5 3
Branden Carlson 7 2 0 0
Luguentz Dort S 35 2 3 1
Brooks Barnhizer 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 16-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
5 Johnny Furphy IND
8%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
9 Jaylin Williams OKC
7%
10 Jay Huff IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
18%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.3 4.4 6.4
2 Pascal Siakam IND 24.6 8.2 5.3
3 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.6 4.0 8.6
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.0 10.1 1.9
5 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.7 5.7 3.0
6 Jay Huff IND 10.8 4.4 1.4
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.5 4.2 1.5
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.9 4.6 1.7
9 T.J. McConnell IND 9.6 2.8 5.4
10 Jarace Walker IND 8.9 3.8 2.1
11 Johnny Furphy IND 7.5 6.1 1.6
12 Cason Wallace OKC 6.8 3.1 1.7
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.7 2.5 1.0
14 Micah Potter IND 6.6 3.5 1.1
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.5 3.3 1.1
16 Ben Sheppard IND 5.9 2.1 1.4
17 Branden Carlson OKC 5.7 3.8 0.7
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.4 4.3 2.1
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.2 1.6 1.2
20 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.1 5.3 0.8
21 Tony Bradley IND 4.3 3.6 0.7
22 Ethan Thompson IND 3.1 1.8 0.9
23 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.1 1.4 0.6
24 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.9 1.8 0.7
25 Kam Jones IND 2.7 1.5 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.