NBA games

DEN @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
102–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN21273024102
MIL21212137100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julian Strawther S 27 20 5 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 17 4 2
Bruce Brown 26 15 3 3
Aaron Gordon S 16 13 6 3
Jalen Pickett S 34 13 3 7
Zeke Nnaji S 37 11 12 2
Spencer Jones S 38 5 5 2
Curtis Jones 9 5 1 2
DaRon Holmes II 16 3 4 0
Hunter Tyson 12 0 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 32 22 13 7
Ryan Rollins S 35 21 4 1
Myles Turner S 29 17 7 2
Kyle Kuzma S 35 11 10 6
Bobby Portis 26 11 9 0
Cole Anthony 16 9 2 5
Amir Coffey 21 5 1 0
Gary Harris S 28 4 3 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 4 0 0 1
Pete Nance 12 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 1-foot layup (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
18%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
15%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
4 Myles Turner MIL
10%
5 Jalen Pickett DEN
10%
6 Ryan Rollins MIL
10%
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
8 Gary Harris MIL
8%
9 DaRon Holmes II DEN
8%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
7%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 27.8 4.3 8.5
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 27.6 11.0 5.4
3 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.3 5.8 3.5
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 14.3 2.9 1.6
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 13.7 5.6 4.7
6 Bobby Portis MIL 12.6 6.0 2.1
7 Jalen Pickett DEN 11.4 4.6 4.5
8 Myles Turner MIL 11.2 4.8 1.4
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 10.2 3.5 1.6
10 Zeke Nnaji DEN 8.3 4.5 1.3
11 Bruce Brown DEN 7.8 3.8 2.0
12 Spencer Jones DEN 7.2 3.7 1.0
13 Cole Anthony MIL 4.7 2.0 1.5
14 Jericho Sims MIL 4.1 3.2 0.8
15 Gary Harris MIL 4.1 1.7 1.0
16 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.1 1.8 1.1
17 Julian Strawther DEN 3.9 1.3 0.8
18 Pete Nance MIL 3.6 1.8 0.7
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.4 1.4 0.8
20 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.4 1.3 0.7
21 Amir Coffey MIL 3.1 1.3 0.5
22 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.7 1.4 0.5
23 Curtis Jones DEN 2.1 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.