NBA games

NO @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
133–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO30303340133
MEM30353626127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home MEM
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Saddiq Bey S 32 36 4 4
Trey Murphy III S 36 32 3 3
Zion Williamson S 33 24 11 4
Jeremiah Fears 23 12 2 4
Yves Missi 21 8 8 0
Derik Queen S 27 8 9 5
Jordan Poole 12 6 4 3
Karlo Matkovic 15 5 6 1
Micah Peavy 16 2 2 0
Herbert Jones S 25 0 0 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 26 12 3
Jock Landale S 32 24 11 2
Cam Spencer S 28 21 5 11
GG Jackson 23 15 4 1
Cedric Coward S 28 13 3 4
Jaylen Wells S 25 11 3 3
Javon Small 9 7 0 2
Vince Williams Jr. 20 6 2 4
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 23 4 3 3
John Konchar 20 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cedric Coward · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Cedric Coward makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaylen Wells assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
16%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
4 Cedric Coward MEM
10%
5 Derik Queen NO
9%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
7 Jeremiah Fears NO
8%
8 Herbert Jones NO
8%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
10 John Konchar MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
27%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 24.3 5.8 4.6
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.4 6.0 2.3
3 Zion Williamson NO 20.9 6.6 4.1
4 Cedric Coward MEM 17.3 7.0 3.0
5 Saddiq Bey NO 16.2 4.2 2.4
6 Santi Aldama MEM 14.4 6.6 3.3
7 Jeremiah Fears NO 13.8 4.7 3.5
8 Jock Landale MEM 12.8 7.4 2.1
9 Jordan Poole NO 11.9 2.3 2.6
10 Cam Spencer MEM 11.7 3.2 7.1
11 Derik Queen NO 11.7 8.8 5.6
12 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.2 3.0 1.7
13 GG Jackson MEM 9.5 3.3 1.5
14 Herbert Jones NO 9.0 3.0 1.9
15 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 8.0 2.7 1.7
16 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.5 3.0 2.7
17 Yves Missi NO 6.7 6.6 1.5
18 Micah Peavy NO 6.6 2.9 1.8
19 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.6 3.2 0.8
20 John Konchar MEM 4.9 2.9 1.3
21 Kevon Looney NO 4.1 5.7 1.2
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.8 1.8 0.8
23 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.4 1.9 0.6
24 Javon Small MEM 3.4 1.1 2.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.