NBA games

SAC @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
118–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC35362225118
CLE35333421123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home CLE
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis 31 24 16 6
Dennis Schroder 31 21 4 4
DeMar DeRozan S 30 20 4 3
Malik Monk 33 16 1 7
Russell Westbrook S 27 11 5 3
Zach LaVine S 23 10 0 0
Dylan Cardwell 23 8 3 1
Precious Achiuwa S 20 4 8 2
Nique Clifford 14 4 1 0
Maxime Raynaud S 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 33 5 8
Evan Mobley S 35 29 13 7
Jaylon Tyson S 36 17 7 4
Jarrett Allen S 34 15 9 0
De'Andre Hunter 19 9 0 0
Dean Wade S 28 6 5 1
Craig Porter Jr. 21 5 5 3
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 15 4 1 0
Tyrese Proctor 4 3 0 0
Larry Nance Jr. 14 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 29-foot three pointer (Jaylon Tyson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Russell Westbrook SAC
11%
5 Jaylon Tyson CLE
10%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
7 Zach LaVine SAC
9%
8 Maxime Raynaud SAC
9%
9 Precious Achiuwa SAC
8%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
30%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.1 5.8 6.6
2 Russell Westbrook SAC 22.3 4.6 7.0
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.6 3.5 5.2
4 Zach LaVine SAC 19.0 3.3 3.2
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.4 10.3 4.1
6 Evan Mobley CLE 17.9 8.4 4.3
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE 14.3 4.9 3.0
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.3 9.1 2.3
9 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.6 4.8 2.6
10 Dennis Schroder SAC 12.4 2.6 4.4
11 Malik Monk SAC 12.3 2.6 3.0
12 Precious Achiuwa SAC 9.9 6.3 1.4
13 Maxime Raynaud SAC 9.6 6.8 1.6
14 Dean Wade CLE 7.0 4.0 1.5
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.7 4.1 4.1
16 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.2 8.7 1.2
17 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.9 4.1 1.3
18 Nique Clifford SAC 5.9 3.1 1.4
19 Dario Saric SAC 4.6 1.7 0.7
20 Keon Ellis SAC 4.4 1.5 0.7
21 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.4 2.4 0.6
22 Lonzo Ball CLE 4.1 2.2 2.4
23 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.0 2.0 0.9
24 Tyrese Proctor CLE 3.8 1.4 0.9
25 Devin Carter SAC 2.8 1.1 0.8
26 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.7 1.3 0.3
27 Doug McDermott SAC 2.7 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.