NBA games

BOS @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
130–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
BOS282129261412130
BKN28272623148126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home BKN
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard S 40 32 4 4
Jaylen Brown S 46 27 10 12
Sam Hauser S 39 19 4 3
Luka Garza 20 12 1 3
Anfernee Simons 37 10 3 2
Hugo Gonzalez 19 10 7 1
Baylor Scheierman S 34 6 7 4
Neemias Queta S 28 6 5 3
Jordan Walsh 15 5 0 2
Amari Williams 5 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 42 30 8 4
Nolan Traore 37 21 3 2
Nic Claxton S 39 18 9 4
Noah Clowney S 43 15 9 1
Ziaire Williams 33 14 8 0
Cam Thomas 19 7 2 4
Drake Powell S 20 6 1 1
Egor Demin S 21 6 4 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 5 8 2
Danny Wolf 18 4 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Sam Hauser · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Baylor Scheierman assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
15%
3 Derrick White BOS
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Payton Pritchard BOS
10%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
7 Noah Clowney BKN
9%
8 Drake Powell BKN
7%
9 Sam Hauser BOS
6%
10 Egor Demin BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
31%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.5 7.7 5.2
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 23.7 7.3 4.1
3 Derrick White BOS 16.8 5.6 5.9
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.1 4.4 6.0
5 Anfernee Simons BOS 15.9 3.2 3.1
6 Noah Clowney BKN 13.1 4.8 2.2
7 Egor Demin BKN 12.7 2.8 3.5
8 Sam Hauser BOS 12.4 4.4 2.0
9 Cam Thomas BKN 12.1 2.2 3.6
10 Neemias Queta BOS 11.8 10.4 1.3
11 Nic Claxton BKN 11.1 6.8 3.0
12 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 10.7 7.4 2.4
13 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.7 2.2 1.2
14 Luka Garza BOS 8.5 4.9 1.1
15 Terance Mann BKN 8.1 3.0 3.3
16 Nolan Traore BKN 7.6 1.7 3.5
17 Drake Powell BKN 7.6 1.9 1.6
18 Danny Wolf BKN 7.5 4.2 1.4
19 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.1 1.9 1.1
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.3 1.7 0.8
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.8 4.3 1.0
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.6 2.1 1.0
23 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.5 3.3 0.8
24 Chris Boucher BOS 4.1 3.1 0.7
25 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.6 1.5 0.8
26 Amari Williams BOS 2.6 2.3 0.7
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.5 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.