NBA games

PHX @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
103–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX31283212103
ATL27372026110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home ATL
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 28 31 4 3
Collin Gillespie S 35 16 6 4
Grayson Allen 30 16 3 3
Dillon Brooks S 34 11 6 2
Oso Ighodaro 27 8 7 2
Mark Williams S 21 6 5 1
Royce O'Neale S 28 5 2 3
Jalen Green 4 4 1 1
Ryan Dunn 15 4 6 0
Jordan Goodwin 18 2 2 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 36 25 5 5
Jalen Johnson S 39 23 18 9
CJ McCollum 29 21 4 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 33 13 0 3
Luke Kennard 23 9 6 4
Corey Kispert S 15 8 3 1
Dyson Daniels S 37 8 8 4
Christian Koloko 12 2 1 0
Mouhamed Gueye 9 1 3 1
Vit Krejci 5 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
15%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
4 Devin Booker PHX
11%
5 Mark Williams PHX
11%
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
7 Collin Gillespie PHX
9%
8 Dillon Brooks PHX
9%
9 Corey Kispert ATL
7%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
23%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.9 4.0 6.9
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.9 10.1 6.3
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 21.1 4.6 4.7
4 CJ McCollum ATL 19.1 3.9 3.9
5 Dillon Brooks PHX 18.1 4.4 2.5
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.2 8.1 3.7
7 Grayson Allen PHX 16.7 3.6 3.8
8 Jalen Green PHX 14.1 2.5 2.6
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.2 7.4 6.5
10 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.3 4.1 4.0
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.8 5.0 3.5
12 Mark Williams PHX 10.9 8.6 1.2
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.9 4.7 2.2
14 Corey Kispert ATL 9.7 2.6 1.8
15 Luke Kennard ATL 9.1 2.5 1.8
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.8 4.0 1.6
17 Vit Krejci ATL 6.6 2.4 1.4
18 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.7 2.6 1.5
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.4 3.9 1.4
20 Christian Koloko ATL 4.6 4.3 1.0
21 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.5 1.0 0.9
22 Asa Newell ATL 3.5 1.7 0.6
23 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.6 1.4 0.4
24 Nick Richards PHX 2.0 2.7 0.4
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.7 1.1 0.4
26 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.5 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.