NBA games

HOU @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
111–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU28243425111
DET20322032104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DET
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 41 32 7 3
Alperen Sengun S 30 19 1 5
Reed Sheppard 25 18 0 1
Amen Thompson S 40 15 9 7
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 11 10 3
Josh Okogie S 35 7 3 0
Clint Capela 16 5 9 1
Jae'Sean Tate 16 4 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 26 18 7 0
Isaiah Stewart 25 16 4 2
Ronald Holland II 25 13 6 1
Cade Cunningham S 38 12 1 8
Ausar Thompson S 24 12 8 3
Daniss Jenkins 19 10 2 4
Duncan Robinson S 26 9 2 0
Jaden Ivey 14 8 1 2
Tobias Harris S 26 4 1 1
Javonte Green 17 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:45 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 9-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
5 Tobias Harris DET
10%
6 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
9 Josh Okogie HOU
6%
10 Daniss Jenkins DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
26%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 27.4 6.6 4.7
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.1 4.9 10.1
3 Amen Thompson HOU 22.0 8.0 5.1
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.0 9.3 5.3
5 Jalen Duren DET 17.9 10.2 2.3
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.3 6.3 1.6
7 Tobias Harris DET 14.6 4.3 2.8
8 Duncan Robinson DET 11.7 2.9 2.0
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.0 2.3 2.3
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.8 5.1 1.5
11 Ausar Thompson DET 9.5 6.3 2.4
12 Javonte Green DET 9.1 3.0 1.1
13 Jaden Ivey DET 8.5 2.6 1.6
14 Ronald Holland II DET 8.4 5.8 1.4
15 Daniss Jenkins DET 8.0 1.9 3.9
16 Marcus Sasser DET 5.4 1.8 1.7
17 Isaiah Crawford HOU 4.8 2.2 0.7
18 Josh Okogie HOU 4.6 2.5 0.9
19 Paul Reed DET 4.3 4.1 1.1
20 Clint Capela HOU 4.2 4.5 0.7
21 Bobi Klintman DET 4.0 2.4 1.0
22 Chaz Lanier DET 3.0 1.0 0.7
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.3 1.3 0.4
24 JD Davison HOU 2.1 1.1 0.7
25 Aaron Holiday HOU 1.9 0.5 0.6
26 Jeff Green HOU 1.9 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.