NBA games

MIA @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
110–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA31322918110
POR38263924127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home POR
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 37 32 10 2
Norman Powell S 28 18 0 1
Simone Fontecchio 25 17 4 3
Andrew Wiggins S 31 14 6 3
Myron Gardner 16 7 3 1
Pelle Larsson S 29 6 3 6
Nikola Jovic 17 5 5 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 26 4 5 3
Dru Smith 20 4 4 2
Kasparas Jakucionis S 11 3 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 34 27 7 3
Deni Avdija S 18 20 7 4
Caleb Love 34 20 4 4
Toumani Camara S 35 16 8 6
Jrue Holiday S 19 15 2 7
Jerami Grant 23 12 0 0
Donovan Clingan S 27 7 8 2
Sidy Cissoko 18 6 3 0
Robert Williams III 19 4 10 0
Rayan Rupert 13 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Layup (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes running layup (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
12%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
4 Toumani Camara POR
9%
5 Norman Powell MIA
9%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
7 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Kris Murray POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
17%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 28.6 7.0 8.3
2 Norman Powell MIA 22.5 3.5 3.3
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.5 5.1 4.1
4 Jerami Grant POR 20.7 4.9 3.4
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.5 8.7 4.2
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.1 4.8 5.1
7 Caleb Love POR 16.4 3.7 3.7
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.5 4.6 2.8
9 Toumani Camara POR 14.4 4.5 2.3
10 Jrue Holiday POR 14.2 4.7 6.1
11 Donovan Clingan POR 13.6 10.4 2.6
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.3 3.0 6.1
13 Pelle Larsson MIA 10.3 3.5 2.5
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.5 3.1 1.9
15 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.4 2.6 1.3
16 Kris Murray POR 6.9 3.0 1.4
17 Simone Fontecchio MIA 5.8 3.0 0.8
18 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.4 0.8
19 Robert Williams III POR 5.1 5.5 0.9
20 Dru Smith MIA 4.6 1.7 1.6
21 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 4.6 2.1 2.1
22 Rayan Rupert POR 4.5 1.7 1.2
23 Myron Gardner MIA 4.0 2.2 0.8
24 Duop Reath POR 2.4 1.8 0.5
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.4 1.4 0.5
26 Yang Hansen POR 2.4 1.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.