NBA games

LAL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
104–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL29182532104
LAC36282226112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home LAC
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 32 11 8
LeBron James S 36 23 5 6
Rui Hachimura 28 12 3 2
Marcus Smart S 30 10 0 4
Jake LaRavia S 22 7 5 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 22 7 1 2
Jaxson Hayes 17 6 2 0
Deandre Ayton S 21 4 5 0
Gabe Vincent 16 3 1 0
Drew Timme 10 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 26 24 5 4
Ivica Zubac S 32 18 19 0
James Harden S 38 18 7 10
Jordan Miller 25 14 3 1
John Collins S 33 13 5 1
Kobe Sanders 24 11 4 1
Brook Lopez 15 10 2 2
Kris Dunn S 30 4 2 3
Nicolas Batum 17 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jake LaRavia · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jake LaRavia makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
12%
2 James Harden LAC
11%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
6 John Collins LAC
8%
7 LeBron James LAL
8%
8 Maxi Kleber LAL
7%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Jake LaRavia LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
42%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
8%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 30.9 6.1 9.4
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 28.8 6.0 4.2
3 LeBron James LAL 26.5 7.9 7.8
4 James Harden LAC 25.9 4.5 8.9
5 John Collins LAC 15.0 4.9 1.3
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.3 8.8 2.0
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.2 9.5 1.2
8 Jordan Miller LAC 11.9 3.7 2.4
9 Jake LaRavia LAL 11.6 3.6 2.3
10 Marcus Smart LAL 11.3 3.7 2.6
11 Kris Dunn LAC 9.2 3.1 4.1
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 8.8 3.0 1.2
13 Kobe Sanders LAC 8.2 2.8 1.7
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.6 3.8 0.8
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.9 4.7 1.4
16 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.4 1.3 1.1
17 Brook Lopez LAC 5.4 2.8 1.0
18 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 5.4 1.5 2.3
19 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 5.4 3.5 0.7
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.3 2.6 1.1
21 Drew Timme LAL 4.3 1.6 1.0
22 Kobe Bufkin LAL 3.8 1.4 0.7
23 Cam Christie LAC 3.7 1.7 0.8
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. LAC 3.6 2.0 1.3
25 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.7 1.0 0.4
26 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.5 1.6 0.6
27 Kobe Brown LAC 2.4 1.3 0.7
28 Bronny James LAL 1.9 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.