NBA games

SA @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
126–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA31343229126
UTAH31223917109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home UTAH
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 35 31 5 5
Victor Wembanyama S 33 26 14 3
Keldon Johnson 31 21 1 5
Julian Champagnie S 34 17 3 3
Stephon Castle S 38 16 6 8
Carter Bryant 13 7 4 1
Dylan Harper 13 4 3 2
Harrison Barnes S 22 2 1 1
Kelly Olynyk 8 2 1 0
Jeremy Sochan 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ace Bailey S 32 25 6 2
Keyonte George S 35 23 4 5
Jusuf Nurkic S 35 17 11 14
Cody Williams S 23 12 7 3
Svi Mykhailiuk S 19 9 1 1
Isaiah Collier 20 7 3 4
Kevin Love 13 5 4 1
Kyle Filipowski 19 5 5 0
Walter Clayton Jr. 24 4 0 1
Brice Sensabaugh 20 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes 3-foot layup (Keyonte George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
2 Stephon Castle SA
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
11%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
6 Cody Williams UTAH
9%
7 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
9 Ace Bailey UTAH
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
34%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.0 9.3 2.6
2 Keyonte George UTAH 24.6 3.7 6.5
3 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 19.1 4.1 2.5
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 18.6 5.3 6.9
5 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 17.7 11.6 5.9
6 Stephon Castle SA 17.5 5.2 7.3
7 Julian Champagnie SA 16.0 8.1 2.4
8 Keldon Johnson SA 13.9 5.2 1.6
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 11.2 2.8 6.0
10 Ace Bailey UTAH 10.6 4.0 1.6
11 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 9.8 2.8 4.1
12 Cody Williams UTAH 9.7 3.9 1.4
13 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 9.5 6.1 2.0
14 Harrison Barnes SA 9.2 2.8 2.3
15 Dylan Harper SA 8.5 3.5 3.2
16 Kevin Love UTAH 8.2 6.6 1.8
17 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.9 2.8 1.8
18 Kyle Anderson UTAH 7.2 4.0 2.0
19 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 4.3 2.3 1.0
20 Carter Bryant SA 3.7 2.3 0.7
21 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.4 1.8 1.1
22 Lindy Waters III SA 3.3 1.5 0.9
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.6 1.4 0.7
24 Jeremy Sochan SA 2.2 1.5 0.5
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.0 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.