NBA games

CHI @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
120115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI26343327120
MIN32292925115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIN
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 30 22 4 4
Josh Giddey 26 21 6 5
Jalen Smith S 27 17 4 0
Matas Buzelis S 28 12 6 3
Tre Jones 27 12 3 7
Isaac Okoro S 26 10 5 1
Nikola Vucevic S 31 10 8 3
Ayo Dosunmu 22 8 4 3
Patrick Williams 16 5 3 0
Kevin Huerter 8 3 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 31 30 7 6
Anthony Edwards S 35 20 6 3
Naz Reid 29 20 6 5
Jaden McDaniels S 36 16 5 5
Donte DiVincenzo S 35 11 3 4
Rudy Gobert S 34 10 11 2
Bones Hyland 12 3 2 1
Mike Conley 14 3 3 2
Jaylen Clark 12 2 1 1
Joan Beringer 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 13-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
3 Julius Randle MIN
10%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
8 Jalen Smith CHI
7%
9 Coby White CHI
7%
10 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
26%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.5 4.8 4.5
2 Julius Randle MIN 24.1 6.9 4.5
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.0 9.8 5.3
4 Josh Giddey CHI 19.4 6.2 8.5
5 Matas Buzelis CHI 18.5 4.9 3.3
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 18.4 3.3 5.1
7 Coby White CHI 17.2 4.0 4.5
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.9 5.0 3.4
9 Naz Reid MIN 15.3 5.8 2.9
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.5 4.7 4.8
11 Tre Jones CHI 13.5 3.5 6.9
12 Jalen Smith CHI 11.9 8.9 1.6
13 Kevin Huerter CHI 11.2 4.0 3.4
14 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.2 10.6 1.5
15 Isaac Okoro CHI 8.2 3.1 1.6
16 Bones Hyland MIN 7.0 1.6 3.1
17 Patrick Williams CHI 5.7 2.5 1.1
18 Mike Conley MIN 5.4 1.7 2.1
19 Jevon Carter CHI 4.7 1.3 0.8
20 Enrique Freeman MIN 4.7 2.5 0.6
21 Joan Beringer MIN 4.4 3.2 0.6
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.2 2.4 0.9
23 Dalen Terry CHI 4.0 1.8 0.9
24 Julian Phillips CHI 3.5 1.5 0.6
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.7 1.3 0.4
26 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.5 1.0 1.1
27 Joe Ingles MIN 1.3 0.6 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.