NBA games

GS @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
115–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS27233926115
DAL24312939123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home DAL
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 38 4 1
De'Anthony Melton 23 22 3 2
Moses Moody S 23 12 3 3
Jonathan Kuminga 9 10 1 2
Brandin Podziemski S 33 9 4 10
Buddy Hield 15 6 1 1
Gui Santos S 17 5 4 0
Draymond Green S 23 4 4 5
Gary Payton II 17 4 3 0
Al Horford 26 3 8 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall S 34 30 7 9
Max Christie S 36 21 4 2
Cooper Flagg S 30 21 11 2
Brandon Williams 27 19 5 4
Dwight Powell S 27 10 12 1
P.J. Washington 22 10 6 3
Klay Thompson 23 6 4 0
Ryan Nembhard 12 5 2 3
Moussa Cisse 6 1 1 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cooper Flagg · Layup (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Cooper Flagg makes running layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
13%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
3 Stephen Curry GS
11%
4 Max Christie DAL
9%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
6 Dwight Powell DAL
8%
7 Caleb Martin DAL
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
10 Quinten Post GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
24%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 23.8 3.9 6.8
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 19.9 6.0 5.8
3 Naji Marshall DAL 18.9 4.7 4.4
4 Max Christie DAL 17.5 4.1 3.2
5 Brandon Williams DAL 16.6 4.3 3.2
6 De'Anthony Melton GS 12.8 3.7 2.2
7 Klay Thompson DAL 12.6 2.7 2.1
8 P.J. Washington DAL 12.3 6.9 1.3
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.7 4.4 3.0
10 Draymond Green GS 11.0 5.4 5.5
11 Moses Moody GS 9.6 2.6 1.5
12 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.0 4.9 1.9
13 Quinten Post GS 8.0 3.7 1.3
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.8 1.7 1.5
15 Al Horford GS 7.6 5.3 1.9
16 Buddy Hield GS 7.6 2.6 1.0
17 Ryan Nembhard DAL 7.4 2.2 4.9
18 Gary Payton II GS 7.0 3.9 1.3
19 Gui Santos GS 5.7 2.9 1.6
20 Dwight Powell DAL 5.6 5.9 1.2
21 Caleb Martin DAL 5.4 2.5 2.1
22 Will Richard GS 5.2 2.2 1.7
23 Moussa Cisse DAL 5.1 6.1 0.6
24 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl DAL 4.7 3.3 0.9
25 D'Angelo Russell DAL 4.4 1.1 1.7
26 Miles Kelly DAL 4.1 1.4 1.0
27 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.6 2.4 0.6
28 Pat Spencer GS 3.4 1.6 2.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.