NBA games

DEN @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
107–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN27213326107
WSH2323292297

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home WSH
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Peyton Watson S 40 35 8 3
Jamal Murray S 36 24 4 5
Aaron Gordon S 33 16 5 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 22 16 9 2
Bruce Brown 18 6 6 2
Zeke Nnaji 10 4 1 0
Spencer Jones 28 2 5 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 20 2 3 0
Jalen Pickett S 33 2 5 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George S 34 20 12 7
Tre Johnson S 34 19 3 3
Alex Sarr S 36 15 8 4
Bub Carrington S 38 13 2 2
Will Riley 21 13 4 0
Khris Middleton S 28 9 2 0
Justin Champagnie 18 3 2 3
Jamir Watkins 18 3 5 1
Anthony Gill 12 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes layup (Peyton Watson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
3 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
4 Peyton Watson DEN
9%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
6 Jonas Valanciunas DEN
8%
7 Tre Johnson WSH
7%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
7%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
10 Spencer Jones DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
26%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 28.9 4.4 8.7
2 Peyton Watson DEN 24.1 6.3 3.6
3 Kyshawn George WSH 19.7 5.1 5.3
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.4 6.4 3.3
5 Alex Sarr WSH 16.9 6.3 2.6
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 15.5 2.9 1.8
7 Tre Johnson WSH 13.4 3.2 3.2
8 Justin Champagnie WSH 12.0 6.3 1.6
9 Jalen Pickett DEN 11.9 4.6 4.6
10 Bub Carrington WSH 11.5 3.8 5.4
11 Khris Middleton WSH 9.8 3.8 3.3
12 Marvin Bagley III WSH 8.9 5.9 1.4
13 Zeke Nnaji DEN 8.4 5.1 1.4
14 Spencer Jones DEN 8.3 3.8 1.1
15 Bruce Brown DEN 7.5 3.7 2.1
16 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.0 4.2 1.0
17 Will Riley WSH 6.7 2.5 1.4
18 Jamir Watkins WSH 4.8 3.5 0.8
19 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.7 2.1 1.4
20 Julian Strawther DEN 4.4 1.5 1.0
21 Malaki Branham WSH 3.9 1.4 0.8
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.8 1.5 1.0
23 AJ Johnson WSH 3.0 1.6 0.8
24 Anthony Gill WSH 1.7 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.