NBA games

HOU @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
122–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
HOU342727277122
PHI3236222513128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home PHI
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 44 36 7 3
Amen Thompson S 42 17 6 9
Reed Sheppard 23 14 1 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 38 13 4 5
Tari Eason 28 13 9 2
Alperen Sengun S 38 13 8 7
Josh Okogie S 22 8 2 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 15 6 2 1
Clint Capela 15 2 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 43 36 2 10
Joel Embiid S 46 32 15 10
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 41 26 4 3
Paul George S 37 10 6 4
VJ Edgecombe S 40 9 7 4
Dominick Barlow 21 7 5 3
Trendon Watford 11 4 3 3
Quentin Grimes 19 3 1 3
Adem Bona 7 1 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Paul George makes running dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant HOU
12%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
5 Joel Embiid PHI
8%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
7 Paul George PHI
8%
8 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
9 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
10 Andre Drummond PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
30%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 27.7 7.9 4.5
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.6 4.3 5.4
3 Kevin Durant HOU 25.8 6.5 5.4
4 Amen Thompson HOU 21.7 9.3 5.1
5 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.8 9.7 5.7
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 16.6 4.9 5.1
7 Paul George PHI 15.8 4.8 4.0
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.3 6.9 1.6
9 Tari Eason HOU 11.9 6.8 1.7
10 Quentin Grimes PHI 10.8 3.9 2.4
11 Reed Sheppard HOU 10.5 2.3 2.4
12 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.0 3.8 1.5
13 Dominick Barlow PHI 6.9 4.4 0.9
14 Andre Drummond PHI 5.9 6.5 0.8
15 Adem Bona PHI 5.0 4.2 0.6
16 Isaiah Crawford HOU 4.7 2.2 0.8
17 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.4 2.7 0.8
18 Clint Capela HOU 4.3 4.1 0.7
19 Josh Okogie HOU 4.0 2.3 0.8
20 Trendon Watford PHI 3.6 2.3 1.6
21 Justin Edwards PHI 3.4 1.4 0.7
22 Eric Gordon PHI 3.3 0.4 0.4
23 Jabari Walker PHI 3.3 2.6 0.6
24 Jared McCain PHI 3.1 1.1 0.8
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.2 1.5 0.4
26 JD Davison HOU 2.0 1.2 0.7
27 Jeff Green HOU 2.0 0.8 0.3
28 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.4 0.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.