NBA games

CHA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
124–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA35273527124
ORL2021263097

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home ORL
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 27 20 2 4
Collin Sexton 23 19 0 4
LaMelo Ball S 28 16 6 7
Tidjane Salaun 18 13 5 0
Kon Knueppel S 28 13 10 4
Miles Bridges S 30 10 8 2
Moussa Diabate S 16 10 4 1
Ryan Kalkbrenner 27 10 9 0
Sion James 20 7 3 3
Josh Green 16 6 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 30 23 7 5
Desmond Bane S 32 21 5 4
Moritz Wagner 15 14 1 1
Noah Penda 19 13 2 4
Jett Howard 18 10 1 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 20 4 3 3
Anthony Black S 28 4 2 2
Tristan da Silva S 19 3 3 1
Tyus Jones 16 3 2 1
Jase Richardson 23 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
2 Anthony Black ORL
13%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
13%
4 Kon Knueppel CHA
12%
5 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
6 Moussa Diabate CHA
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
9 Sion James CHA
8%
10 LaMelo Ball CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
31%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.7 9.9 6.2
2 Brandon Miller CHA 22.1 5.0 3.9
3 Desmond Bane ORL 19.2 4.6 4.2
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.2 5.9 3.7
5 Anthony Black ORL 19.1 4.3 6.0
6 LaMelo Ball CHA 18.7 4.8 6.3
7 Miles Bridges CHA 16.6 5.9 2.8
8 Collin Sexton CHA 13.8 2.4 3.4
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.6 7.2 2.4
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.6 8.9 2.1
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.6 2.7 1.2
12 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.3 5.2 1.3
13 Jase Richardson ORL 7.4 1.9 1.3
14 Sion James CHA 6.9 3.7 2.9
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.0 5.8 0.7
16 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.4 4.4 1.1
17 Noah Penda ORL 5.0 3.4 1.0
18 Josh Green CHA 4.9 2.7 1.1
19 Antonio Reeves CHA 3.8 1.3 0.6
20 Tyus Jones ORL 3.5 1.1 1.4
21 Jamal Cain ORL 3.1 0.8 0.4
22 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.9 1.2 0.7
23 Jonathan Isaac ORL 2.5 1.7 0.5
24 Jett Howard ORL 2.3 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.