NBA games

TOR @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
122–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR26264327122
SAC30312127109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home SAC
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 35 23 3 4
Scottie Barnes S 32 23 8 7
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 32 22 9 4
Immanuel Quickley S 36 18 6 8
Jamal Shead S 33 15 5 6
Gradey Dick 19 11 1 0
Ochai Agbaji 20 4 2 1
Jamison Battle 8 3 3 0
Jonathan Mogbo 23 3 9 0
A.J. Lawson 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook S 35 23 3 3
Zach LaVine S 38 19 1 5
Malik Monk 25 17 4 3
Dennis Schroder 20 16 1 3
Precious Achiuwa S 21 11 8 1
DeMar DeRozan S 33 9 1 2
Maxime Raynaud S 22 8 7 2
Nique Clifford 21 4 7 3
Dylan Cardwell 25 2 13 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach LaVine · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three pointer (Precious Achiuwa assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
3 Russell Westbrook SAC
11%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
6 Zach LaVine SAC
9%
7 Maxime Raynaud SAC
9%
8 Precious Achiuwa SAC
9%
9 Gradey Dick TOR
7%
10 Jamal Shead TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
32%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 24.7 7.6 6.6
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.6 6.9 3.7
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.7 3.6 4.9
4 Russell Westbrook SAC 20.6 5.0 6.7
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.8 3.6 5.7
6 Zach LaVine SAC 17.6 3.2 2.7
7 Dennis Schroder SAC 11.8 2.6 4.3
8 Malik Monk SAC 11.2 2.4 2.6
9 Jamal Shead TOR 10.6 2.0 5.8
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.5 5.6 2.3
11 Precious Achiuwa SAC 9.3 6.1 1.4
12 Maxime Raynaud SAC 9.1 6.5 1.4
13 Gradey Dick TOR 7.8 3.4 1.0
14 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.1 8.1 1.1
15 Nique Clifford SAC 5.5 2.7 1.2
16 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.0 2.3 0.8
17 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.5 2.3 0.6
18 Dario Saric SAC 4.3 1.7 0.6
19 Keon Ellis SAC 4.0 1.5 0.6
20 Jamison Battle TOR 3.8 1.8 0.7
21 Alijah Martin TOR 3.6 1.8 0.8
22 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.0 1.9 0.6
23 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.2 0.6
24 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.4 1.3 0.3
25 Devin Carter SAC 2.4 1.0 0.7
26 Doug McDermott SAC 2.2 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.