NBA games

OKC @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
122–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC38313023122
MIL18332625102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 40 7 11
Kenrich Williams 28 18 8 2
Ajay Mitchell S 25 18 3 2
Luguentz Dort S 33 13 4 3
Chet Holmgren S 32 10 7 2
Branden Carlson 16 9 6 1
Cason Wallace S 31 9 2 2
Isaiah Joe 25 5 1 1
Ousmane Dieng 2 0 1 0
Brooks Barnhizer 13 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 31 19 14 7
Cole Anthony 24 17 3 3
Bobby Portis 37 15 6 9
AJ Green S 32 15 3 1
Pete Nance 30 11 4 1
Ryan Rollins S 29 10 3 7
Kyle Kuzma S 28 9 4 0
Gary Harris S 9 3 0 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 6 3 2 0
Gary Trent Jr. 6 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:44 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
30%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
4 Ryan Rollins MIL
10%
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL
9%
6 AJ Green MIL
9%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC
7%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
0%
10 Ajay Mitchell OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
6%
Layup
60%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.5 4.1 6.4
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.0 10.4 5.5
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.0 10.0 1.8
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 14.8 3.9 4.3
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 13.8 5.7 4.7
6 Bobby Portis MIL 13.0 5.7 1.6
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.0 4.7 1.8
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL 10.0 3.6 1.8
9 AJ Green MIL 9.6 2.6 1.9
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.6 4.0 1.3
11 Cason Wallace OKC 6.4 2.9 1.7
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.4 2.5 1.1
13 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.3 2.7 1.0
14 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.0 1.6 1.3
15 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 4.4 1.0 1.0
16 Gary Harris MIL 4.1 1.8 1.0
17 Branden Carlson OKC 3.7 2.4 0.5
18 Jericho Sims MIL 3.6 3.3 0.6
19 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.0 1.3 0.6
20 Pete Nance MIL 2.9 1.5 0.7
21 Cole Anthony MIL 2.9 1.3 1.1
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.5 0.9 0.6
23 Amir Coffey MIL 2.3 0.8 0.3
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 1.0 0.3
25 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 1.5 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.