NBA games

DET @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
112–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET34342123112
NO30322220104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home NO
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 30 20 15 3
Daniss Jenkins S 27 17 1 4
Duncan Robinson S 29 15 4 3
Ausar Thompson S 28 12 9 3
Tobias Harris S 31 10 6 3
Marcus Sasser 21 9 1 4
Javonte Green 14 8 2 0
Isaiah Stewart 24 8 6 3
Jaden Ivey 18 7 1 1
Ronald Holland II 18 6 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Saddiq Bey S 29 20 3 2
Trey Murphy III S 35 17 4 2
Micah Peavy 27 17 7 2
Jeremiah Fears S 20 12 5 0
Jordan Poole 28 11 2 2
Bryce McGowens 13 5 2 1
Derik Queen S 23 5 4 8
Karlo Matkovic 14 5 2 0
Zion Williamson S 15 4 4 0
Yves Missi 26 4 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes dunk (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
16%
2 Zion Williamson NO
14%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
13%
4 Derik Queen NO
12%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
6 Jeremiah Fears NO
10%
7 Tobias Harris DET
8%
8 Duncan Robinson DET
8%
9 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
10 Daniss Jenkins DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
32%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 25.0 5.8 4.3
2 Zion Williamson NO 23.2 6.4 4.1
3 Jalen Duren DET 18.5 10.6 2.4
4 Saddiq Bey NO 15.8 4.4 2.0
5 Jeremiah Fears NO 14.6 4.7 3.7
6 Tobias Harris DET 13.3 4.1 2.8
7 Derik Queen NO 11.9 9.1 4.9
8 Jordan Poole NO 11.8 2.1 2.9
9 Duncan Robinson DET 11.5 2.9 1.8
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.2 5.0 1.5
11 Javonte Green DET 9.6 3.1 1.2
12 Ausar Thompson DET 9.4 6.0 2.4
13 Jaden Ivey DET 9.1 2.7 1.7
14 Ronald Holland II DET 8.6 5.9 1.4
15 Bryce McGowens NO 7.0 2.0 1.2
16 Yves Missi NO 6.5 6.2 1.3
17 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.1 1.6 3.8
18 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.5 3.5 0.7
19 Micah Peavy NO 5.5 2.1 1.6
20 Paul Reed DET 4.6 4.2 1.3
21 Marcus Sasser DET 4.5 1.3 1.5
22 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.6 2.0 0.8
23 Kevon Looney NO 2.4 4.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.