NBA games

ATL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
124–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL31352830124
MEM32273627122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MEM
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 39 32 15 8
Luke Kennard 25 18 4 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 28 18 9 1
CJ McCollum 26 15 0 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 33 11 2 4
Corey Kispert S 14 8 1 2
Vit Krejci 11 7 2 1
Mouhamed Gueye 18 7 1 2
Christian Koloko 11 5 1 0
Dyson Daniels S 35 3 7 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 30 23 2 12
Jaylen Wells S 26 18 4 0
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 17 6 2
Cedric Coward S 26 17 7 0
Jock Landale 28 13 11 3
Cam Spencer 21 11 2 4
GG Jackson 21 9 2 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 18 9 5 3
Vince Williams Jr. 18 3 0 1
John Konchar S 21 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Wells · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jaylen Wells makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
2 Ja Morant MEM
10%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
4 Cedric Coward MEM
10%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
10 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
23%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.0 4.7 4.8
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.7 10.1 6.9
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.0 6.1 2.2
4 Ja Morant MEM 20.7 3.8 8.4
5 CJ McCollum ATL 20.0 4.4 4.1
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.5 7.9 4.3
7 Cedric Coward MEM 17.3 7.0 3.6
8 Santi Aldama MEM 14.5 6.9 3.4
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.3 7.8 7.1
10 Jock Landale MEM 12.7 7.5 2.1
11 Cam Spencer MEM 11.5 3.4 7.1
12 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.9 3.4 1.7
13 Corey Kispert ATL 10.5 2.7 1.7
14 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.1 3.7 1.3
15 Luke Kennard ATL 9.3 2.5 2.2
16 GG Jackson MEM 9.2 3.2 1.5
17 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 8.4 2.8 1.6
18 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.5 3.2 3.1
19 Vit Krejci ATL 7.0 2.6 1.5
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.8 3.8 1.4
21 John Konchar MEM 4.5 2.7 1.4
22 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.8 1.0 1.0
23 Christian Koloko ATL 3.4 3.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.