NBA games

BKN @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
66–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2018181066
NY38222832120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home NY
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 26 12 6 1
Ziaire Williams 19 11 1 0
Noah Clowney S 23 8 4 0
Drake Powell S 25 6 1 3
Egor Demin S 21 6 1 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 24 6 2 1
Cam Thomas 16 5 1 2
Nic Claxton S 23 4 4 1
Danny Wolf 12 3 2 0
Tyrese Martin 11 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 31 20 4 5
Landry Shamet 15 18 1 2
Miles McBride 19 14 6 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 20 14 8 3
Josh Hart S 25 11 9 3
Mikal Bridges S 25 11 4 4
Mitchell Robinson 17 7 7 0
Mohamed Diawara 8 7 3 1
Tyler Kolek 10 6 0 0
OG Anunoby S 30 5 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 8-foot pullup jump shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 OG Anunoby NY
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
6 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
9%
7 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
8 Josh Hart NY
7%
9 Terance Mann BKN
7%
10 Drake Powell BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
44%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.8 3.5 5.9
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 24.4 7.1 3.8
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.0 10.4 4.0
4 OG Anunoby NY 19.5 5.7 3.3
5 Miles McBride NY 16.1 3.0 3.7
6 Mikal Bridges NY 15.5 4.5 3.6
7 Cam Thomas BKN 15.1 2.5 3.6
8 Noah Clowney BKN 13.4 4.8 2.5
9 Josh Hart NY 13.2 7.1 5.9
10 Egor Demin BKN 12.6 3.0 3.3
11 Nic Claxton BKN 11.9 7.2 3.1
12 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 10.9 8.1 2.7
13 Landry Shamet NY 9.6 2.1 1.6
14 Nolan Traore BKN 8.6 2.1 3.5
15 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.4 2.4 1.1
16 Terance Mann BKN 8.1 3.3 3.6
17 Danny Wolf BKN 8.1 4.6 1.4
18 Drake Powell BKN 7.2 1.8 1.4
19 Jordan Clarkson NY 6.9 1.8 1.1
20 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.2 2.0 1.2
21 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.0 9.6 1.2
22 Tyler Kolek NY 5.6 2.3 2.7
23 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.1 1.8 0.7
24 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.9 2.1 1.0
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.0 3.0 0.8
26 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.5 1.3 0.7
27 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.5 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.