NBA games

IND @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
104–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND20263226104
BOS30362528119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home BOS
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 33 32 10 4
Jarace Walker 29 19 3 2
Johnny Furphy S 23 10 8 2
Micah Potter 17 9 2 1
Andrew Nembhard S 33 9 4 9
Ben Sheppard 21 8 0 2
Aaron Nesmith S 28 6 3 4
T.J. McConnell 14 4 3 3
Quenton Jackson 6 3 0 0
Jay Huff S 16 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 34 30 10 5
Neemias Queta S 29 17 9 0
Sam Hauser S 28 17 6 3
Derrick White S 30 13 5 5
Payton Pritchard S 33 10 5 8
Anfernee Simons 22 9 4 2
Luka Garza 16 8 6 0
Hugo Gonzalez 11 5 2 0
Baylor Scheierman 14 5 2 1
Jordan Walsh 17 3 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Sam Hauser · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
18%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
4 Derrick White BOS
11%
5 Payton Pritchard BOS
11%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
8 Jay Huff IND
7%
9 Johnny Furphy IND
6%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
17%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 30.9 7.3 5.6
2 Pascal Siakam IND 24.0 7.1 4.9
3 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.3 3.4 7.5
4 Anfernee Simons BOS 17.9 3.3 3.4
5 Derrick White BOS 17.1 5.7 5.9
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.0 4.3 5.8
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.5 5.9 2.7
8 Sam Hauser BOS 12.1 4.2 1.7
9 Jay Huff IND 10.9 4.2 1.4
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.7 10.3 1.2
11 T.J. McConnell IND 9.2 2.2 5.5
12 Luka Garza BOS 9.0 4.8 1.2
13 Jarace Walker IND 8.2 3.2 1.9
14 Johnny Furphy IND 7.0 5.3 1.6
15 Micah Potter IND 6.9 3.2 1.4
16 Quenton Jackson IND 6.7 1.8 1.8
17 Ben Sheppard IND 5.8 2.2 1.4
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.1 5.5 0.8
19 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.8 3.9 0.9
20 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.6 2.1 0.9
21 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.4 3.6 0.8
22 Chris Boucher BOS 4.1 3.2 0.7
23 Tony Bradley IND 4.1 3.4 0.7
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.0 1.8 0.6
25 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.0 1.1 0.6
26 Kam Jones IND 2.2 0.9 0.7
27 Amari Williams BOS 1.9 2.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.