NBA games

CLE @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
94–87
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE3323201894
CHA2012322387

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home CHA
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 24 3 6
Evan Mobley S 36 14 14 0
Jaylon Tyson S 31 14 7 4
Jarrett Allen S 35 13 9 0
Craig Porter Jr. 18 7 1 2
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 21 6 9 2
Larry Nance Jr. 13 5 2 1
De'Andre Hunter 13 4 4 1
Dean Wade S 27 4 9 4
Tyrese Proctor 10 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 34 24 4 2
Kon Knueppel S 31 21 11 2
Miles Bridges S 26 11 1 1
Collin Sexton 15 11 2 0
Josh Green 19 7 9 2
Ryan Kalkbrenner 15 7 4 1
Moussa Diabate S 29 4 5 0
LaMelo Ball 22 2 5 7
Grant Williams 25 0 5 4
Sion James S 22 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 Jaylon Tyson CLE
10%
6 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
7 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
8 LaMelo Ball CHA
9%
9 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
37%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.2 5.3 6.4
2 Brandon Miller CHA 22.9 4.8 4.2
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.0 4.4 6.6
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.7 5.5 4.0
5 Miles Bridges CHA 17.4 6.5 3.3
6 Evan Mobley CLE 16.9 7.6 4.6
7 Collin Sexton CHA 15.4 2.7 4.3
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE 14.3 4.5 2.9
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.0 8.6 2.4
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE 12.5 5.1 2.7
11 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.4 9.6 2.4
12 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.9 5.6 1.4
13 Sion James CHA 7.3 4.0 3.2
14 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.4 4.6 4.0
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.2 3.3 1.3
16 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.0 4.4 1.3
17 Grant Williams CHA 5.8 2.9 0.8
18 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.5 3.5 1.1
19 Tre Mann CHA 5.2 1.8 1.5
20 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.0 2.4 0.8
21 Lonzo Ball CLE 4.7 2.3 2.5
22 Josh Green CHA 4.5 1.9 1.2
23 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.3 1.2 1.0
24 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.4 1.3 0.9
25 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.8 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.