NBA games

MIA @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
130–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA32452330130
SAC25392528117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home SAC
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 30 25 7 5
Norman Powell S 31 22 3 2
Andrew Wiggins S 30 19 3 2
Pelle Larsson S 26 16 6 9
Simone Fontecchio 19 15 7 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 13 9 3
Nikola Jovic 19 8 5 2
Davion Mitchell S 19 6 3 7
Myron Gardner 15 5 1 3
Kasparas Jakucionis 17 1 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 35 23 4 5
Russell Westbrook S 31 22 2 7
Malik Monk 30 18 2 2
Zach LaVine S 22 18 1 5
Nique Clifford 24 9 3 1
Maxime Raynaud S 18 7 8 0
Precious Achiuwa S 22 6 5 1
Domantas Sabonis 17 6 10 3
Dylan Cardwell 21 4 12 1
Dennis Schroder 19 4 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach LaVine · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:54 Q1
"Zach LaVine makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
2 Norman Powell MIA
12%
3 Zach LaVine SAC
11%
4 Russell Westbrook SAC
11%
5 Maxime Raynaud SAC
10%
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
7 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
8 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
9 Precious Achiuwa SAC
8%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
23%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 23.1 3.6 3.3
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.0 3.7 5.0
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.0 10.4 4.6
4 Russell Westbrook SAC 19.9 4.9 6.9
5 Zach LaVine SAC 17.6 3.3 2.6
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 17.4 4.3 4.8
7 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.3 9.6 3.4
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA 14.8 5.0 2.6
9 Dennis Schroder SAC 12.1 2.7 4.8
10 Pelle Larsson MIA 10.1 3.4 2.3
11 Maxime Raynaud SAC 9.8 6.7 1.5
12 Malik Monk SAC 9.7 2.4 2.8
13 Precious Achiuwa SAC 9.6 6.4 1.6
14 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.3 3.0 5.7
15 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.5 6.5 1.0
16 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.1 3.3 1.9
17 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.3 8.0 1.4
18 Dru Smith MIA 5.2 1.9 1.5
19 Nique Clifford SAC 5.0 2.5 1.2
20 Simone Fontecchio MIA 4.9 2.5 0.7
21 Keon Ellis SAC 4.6 1.6 0.7
22 Dario Saric SAC 4.5 1.7 0.6
23 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 4.3 2.1 2.0
24 Myron Gardner MIA 3.9 2.2 0.6
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.9 1.7 0.5
26 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.6 1.4 0.3
27 Devin Carter SAC 2.6 1.1 0.8
28 Doug McDermott SAC 2.4 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.