NBA games

TOR @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
145–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR41293837145
GS28224433127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home GS
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 34 40 2 10
Scottie Barnes S 39 26 7 11
Brandon Ingram S 36 22 4 5
Sandro Mamukelashvili 26 14 12 4
Jamal Shead S 30 10 1 8
Gradey Dick S 23 10 3 0
Jamison Battle 15 9 2 3
A.J. Lawson 11 6 1 0
Ochai Agbaji 12 4 0 0
Alijah Martin 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield 19 25 1 2
Jonathan Kuminga 21 20 5 2
Stephen Curry S 25 16 3 3
Quinten Post S 18 12 7 0
Brandin Podziemski S 22 11 3 2
Moses Moody S 18 10 5 0
Gary Payton II 11 9 0 0
Pat Spencer 9 9 2 5
De'Anthony Melton 20 6 3 5
Draymond Green S 22 6 6 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 11-foot two point shot (Brandon Ingram assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram TOR
18%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
15%
3 Stephen Curry GS
13%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
5 Draymond Green GS
9%
6 Ochai Agbaji TOR
9%
7 Quinten Post GS
9%
8 Moses Moody GS
8%
9 Will Richard GS
8%
10 De'Anthony Melton GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
23%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 23.4 3.7 6.9
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.5 8.0 6.2
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.5 6.9 4.0
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.6 3.9 5.5
5 De'Anthony Melton GS 12.5 4.0 1.8
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.7 4.2 3.0
7 Draymond Green GS 10.6 5.1 5.1
8 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.3 5.0 2.0
9 Jamal Shead TOR 10.1 2.0 5.9
10 Moses Moody GS 9.2 2.1 1.4
11 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.4 5.3 2.0
12 Quinten Post GS 7.8 3.3 1.4
13 Gradey Dick TOR 6.7 3.1 1.0
14 Gary Payton II GS 6.4 3.8 1.1
15 Malevy Leons GS 6.3 3.7 1.0
16 Will Richard GS 6.0 2.4 1.7
17 Buddy Hield GS 5.5 2.5 0.8
18 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.1 2.5 1.0
19 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.4 2.2 0.7
20 LJ Cryer GS 4.3 1.5 1.2
21 Gui Santos GS 4.2 2.6 1.3
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.9 2.9 0.6
23 Alijah Martin TOR 3.2 1.9 0.9
24 Jamison Battle TOR 3.0 1.6 0.6
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.8 1.7 0.7
26 Pat Spencer GS 2.7 1.2 2.0
27 Garrett Temple TOR 2.3 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.