NBA games

LAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
115–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL28292929115
DEN37341719107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DEN
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 36 38 13 10
LeBron James S 34 19 9 8
Marcus Smart S 31 15 2 1
Drew Timme 11 9 3 0
Jaxson Hayes 23 9 5 0
Rui Hachimura 28 9 6 1
Jake LaRavia S 27 7 1 2
Gabe Vincent 17 5 0 0
Deandre Ayton S 15 4 8 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 18 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 36 28 2 11
Peyton Watson S 38 18 5 3
Aaron Gordon S 32 18 4 5
Spencer Jones S 37 16 5 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 31 10 2 2
Jalen Pickett S 26 7 6 4
Zeke Nnaji 19 6 3 0
Bruce Brown 22 4 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Pickett · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jalen Pickett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
13%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 Peyton Watson DEN
10%
4 LeBron James LAL
9%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
7 Jake LaRavia LAL
8%
8 Maxi Kleber LAL
7%
9 DaRon Holmes II DEN
6%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
44%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
12%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 30.6 5.9 9.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 27.5 4.6 8.4
3 LeBron James LAL 26.0 7.2 7.4
4 Peyton Watson DEN 23.7 6.1 3.5
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.8 6.8 2.8
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 14.8 3.0 1.7
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.5 9.6 1.3
8 Jake LaRavia LAL 11.9 4.4 2.3
9 Jalen Pickett DEN 11.8 4.2 4.6
10 Marcus Smart LAL 11.2 4.4 3.0
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.4 3.1 1.2
12 Zeke Nnaji DEN 9.3 4.9 1.4
13 Spencer Jones DEN 7.2 3.9 1.2
14 Bruce Brown DEN 7.1 3.4 2.4
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.6 3.9 0.9
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.9 4.4 1.4
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.4 1.4 1.1
18 DaRon Holmes II DEN 5.2 2.2 1.4
19 Julian Strawther DEN 4.9 1.7 1.1
20 Kobe Bufkin LAL 4.6 1.9 0.8
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.3 1.7 1.0
22 Drew Timme LAL 3.9 1.7 1.1
23 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.5 1.4 0.6
24 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.9 1.9 0.8
25 Bronny James LAL 2.7 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.