NBA games

MIN @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
122–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN34243826122
UTAH29302543127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home UTAH
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 38 8 3
Julius Randle S 34 19 2 3
Jaden McDaniels S 35 18 6 6
Donte DiVincenzo S 33 15 5 8
Naz Reid 28 13 9 4
Rudy Gobert S 29 11 10 0
Jaylen Clark 17 4 2 0
Joan Beringer 5 4 3 0
Mike Conley 16 0 1 2
Bones Hyland 4 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 39 43 0 3
Ace Bailey S 33 20 5 1
Isaiah Collier 26 18 4 10
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 16 18 10
Kyle Filipowski 33 11 8 4
Cody Williams S 29 8 3 1
Walter Clayton Jr. 13 5 3 0
Svi Mykhailiuk S 17 4 3 0
Kyle Anderson 17 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keyonte George · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Keyonte George makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
2 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
10%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
5 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
10%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
7 Naz Reid MIN
9%
8 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
9 Cody Williams UTAH
7%
10 Ace Bailey UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
10%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 30.4 5.3 4.6
2 Julius Randle MIN 25.0 8.1 4.8
3 Keyonte George UTAH 24.1 3.8 7.2
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 18.1 10.2 5.8
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.9 5.1 3.1
6 Naz Reid MIN 16.9 6.3 2.8
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.9 4.9 5.3
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.7 13.0 1.9
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 10.7 2.6 6.2
10 Ace Bailey UTAH 10.5 3.8 1.7
11 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 10.3 2.7 4.7
12 Cody Williams UTAH 9.5 3.8 1.5
13 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 9.2 5.4 1.7
14 Kevin Love UTAH 9.0 6.6 1.9
15 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.4 2.7 2.0
16 Kyle Anderson UTAH 8.0 3.7 2.2
17 Bones Hyland MIN 7.4 1.9 3.4
18 Mike Conley MIN 6.0 1.9 2.2
19 Enrique Freeman MIN 5.8 2.8 0.8
20 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.0 2.6 1.1
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.8 2.7 1.1
22 Joan Beringer MIN 4.8 3.7 0.9
23 Johnny Juzang MIN 4.3 1.6 0.9
24 Leonard Miller MIN 4.2 2.1 0.8
25 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.8 1.6 1.3
26 Joe Ingles MIN 2.8 1.1 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.