NBA games

SA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
106–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA39312214106
HOU28322229111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home HOU
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julian Champagnie S 34 27 8 2
De'Aaron Fox S 32 14 3 5
Victor Wembanyama S 30 14 10 2
Stephon Castle S 35 13 7 8
Keldon Johnson 27 12 6 0
Dylan Harper 23 8 3 5
Luke Kornet 24 8 6 1
Harrison Barnes S 25 6 2 1
Carter Bryant 11 4 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Reed Sheppard 29 21 2 4
Alperen Sengun S 34 20 13 9
Kevin Durant S 39 18 4 7
Jabari Smith Jr. S 35 17 4 1
Amen Thompson S 39 16 10 6
Clint Capela 12 6 2 0
Tari Eason 20 6 6 1
Josh Okogie S 17 5 1 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 15 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Amen Thompson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Amen Thompson makes 2-foot dunk (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant HOU
15%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
4 Stephon Castle SA
10%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
6 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
7 Tari Eason HOU
7%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
9 Victor Wembanyama SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
28%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.2 6.6 5.6
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.7 9.4 2.4
3 Amen Thompson HOU 22.0 8.8 4.6
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.1 9.5 5.1
5 De'Aaron Fox SA 18.8 5.5 6.0
6 Stephon Castle SA 17.0 4.9 6.4
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.4 6.9 1.6
8 Keldon Johnson SA 12.6 4.8 1.4
9 Julian Champagnie SA 12.1 7.5 1.9
10 Tari Eason HOU 11.0 6.0 1.6
11 Reed Sheppard HOU 9.7 2.2 2.2
12 Luke Kornet SA 8.9 6.9 1.5
13 Dylan Harper SA 8.9 3.1 2.4
14 Harrison Barnes SA 7.8 2.4 1.9
15 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.5 2.9 0.8
16 Josh Okogie HOU 4.0 2.5 0.9
17 Clint Capela HOU 3.3 3.7 0.7
18 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.2 1.5 0.9
19 Lindy Waters III SA 3.1 1.2 0.7
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.1 1.9 0.6
21 JD Davison HOU 2.9 1.7 1.0
22 Carter Bryant SA 2.9 2.0 0.5
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.5 1.1 0.5
24 Jeff Green HOU 2.1 0.8 0.3
25 Aaron Holiday HOU 2.0 0.6 0.7
26 Jeremy Sochan SA 1.6 1.1 0.3
27 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.1 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.