Tuesday, January 20, 2026

LAC @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final

110–138

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
LAC	30	19	34	27	110
CHI	25	45	32	36	138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (LAC) games this season

LAC away

home CHI

30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
James Harden S	31	24	5	6	9/25	3/9	-6
John Collins S	24	23	0	1	9/12	5/6	-11
Ivica Zubac S	22	12	11	1	5/12	0/0	-8
Jordan Miller	22	12	2	2	4/10	0/3	-33
TyTy Washington Jr.	12	11	0	1	5/6	1/2	-9
Kobe Sanders S	25	8	2	3	3/5	1/3	-11
Cam Christie	23	7	5	1	3/4	0/1	-17
Yanic Konan Niederhauser	12	4	4	0	2/4	0/1	-9
Kris Dunn S	26	4	5	6	2/5	0/0	-8
Kobe Brown	12	3	5	2	1/3	0/0	-9

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Coby White S	31	27	2	6	9/16	6/10	15
Matas Buzelis S	30	21	2	4	8/14	4/8	27
Nikola Vucevic S	32	19	8	4	8/12	1/2	16
Ayo Dosunmu	29	18	3	4	7/10	4/5	28
Tre Jones	26	15	8	10	6/7	1/2	32
Kevin Huerter	29	14	4	7	5/10	4/8	7
Jalen Smith S	24	10	9	1	4/10	2/4	10
Dalen Terry	14	9	5	3	3/7	2/4	11
Jevon Carter	4	3	0	0	1/2	1/2	0
Isaac Okoro S	15	2	0	0	1/3	0/1	-6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

James Harden · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1

"James Harden makes 1-foot two point shot"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 James Harden LAC

14%

2 Matas Buzelis CHI

12%

3 Nikola Vucevic CHI

12%

4 Ivica Zubac LAC

11%

5 John Collins LAC

10%

6 Coby White CHI

7 Isaac Okoro CHI

8 Jalen Smith CHI

9 Kris Dunn LAC

10 Kobe Sanders LAC

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

15%

Dunk

Free Throw

14%

Jumper

56%

Layup

11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	James Harden	LAC	25.7	4.2	8.3	24	5	6
2	Nikola Vucevic	CHI	21.4	10.0	5.3	19	8	4
3	Matas Buzelis	CHI	18.4	5.4	3.0	21	2	4
4	Coby White	CHI	16.9	3.8	4.1	27	2	6
5	Ayo Dosunmu	CHI	16.7	3.2	4.9	18	3	4
6	Tre Jones	CHI	13.8	3.1	7.1	15	8	10
7	John Collins	LAC	13.6	6.1	1.3	23	0	1
8	Ivica Zubac	LAC	11.9	8.7	2.0	12	11	1
9	Jalen Smith	CHI	11.2	9.4	1.6	10	9	1
10	Kevin Huerter	CHI	11.0	4.1	2.7	14	4	7
11	Jordan Miller	LAC	10.3	3.4	2.2	12	2	2
12	Isaac Okoro	CHI	9.8	3.5	1.8	2	0	0
13	Kris Dunn	LAC	8.9	2.8	3.6	4	5	6
14	Kobe Sanders	LAC	8.4	2.9	1.6	8	2	3
15	Nicolas Batum	LAC	5.9	2.8	1.0	0	1	1
16	Brook Lopez	LAC	5.3	2.9	1.0	0	1	0
17	Jevon Carter	CHI	4.5	1.3	0.7	3	0	0
18	Patrick Baldwin Jr.	LAC	4.4	2.5	1.7	2	0	0
19	Julian Phillips	CHI	3.7	1.6	0.6	0	0	0
20	Yanic Konan Niederhauser	LAC	3.7	3.0	0.5	4	4	0
21	Dalen Terry	CHI	3.5	1.8	0.8	9	5	3
22	Cam Christie	LAC	3.4	1.5	0.6	7	5	1
23	Kobe Brown	LAC	1.7	1.0	0.4	3	5	2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.