NBA games

MIA @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
112–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA34322719112
GS36343431135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home GS
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 30 21 3 3
Andrew Wiggins S 27 18 5 1
Kel'el Ware 18 15 4 2
Simone Fontecchio 27 13 8 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 26 10 5 9
Pelle Larsson S 28 9 5 3
Davion Mitchell S 25 7 6 3
Dru Smith 8 5 2 1
Myron Gardner 4 5 1 0
Bam Adebayo S 26 4 12 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski 30 24 6 4
Stephen Curry S 28 19 3 11
Jimmy Butler III S 21 17 3 4
Buddy Hield 23 16 4 2
Quinten Post S 21 15 9 3
Moses Moody S 29 13 4 2
Al Horford 19 10 8 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 8 7 1 0
Gary Payton II 16 6 3 0
Will Richard S 26 5 3 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Layup (2 pts) · 10:38 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
17%
2 Norman Powell MIA
11%
3 Stephen Curry GS
10%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
5 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
6 Pelle Larsson MIA
7%
7 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
8 Moses Moody GS
7%
9 Will Richard GS
7%
10 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
23%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.4 3.8 6.5
2 Norman Powell MIA 22.5 3.6 3.4
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.2 5.8 5.1
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 18.9 4.0 4.8
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.1 9.4 3.6
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 14.7 5.0 3.1
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.4 4.0 3.0
8 Pelle Larsson MIA 11.4 3.4 2.6
9 Moses Moody GS 9.2 2.4 1.4
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 9.0 3.6 2.3
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.9 6.8 1.0
12 Jonathan Kuminga GS 8.8 5.4 2.1
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 8.8 2.3 6.2
14 Quinten Post GS 7.8 2.6 1.2
15 Malevy Leons GS 7.8 4.4 1.2
16 Gary Payton II GS 7.4 3.7 1.4
17 Al Horford GS 7.4 5.1 1.7
18 Will Richard GS 5.9 2.2 1.5
19 Dru Smith MIA 5.4 1.8 1.7
20 Buddy Hield GS 5.2 2.3 0.8
21 LJ Cryer GS 4.7 1.5 1.6
22 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 4.5 2.1 2.1
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.4 3.2 0.6
24 Simone Fontecchio MIA 4.4 2.0 0.8
25 Myron Gardner MIA 3.8 2.2 0.7
26 Pat Spencer GS 2.9 1.2 2.0
27 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.2 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.