NBA games

UTAH @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
110–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH26312330110
SA34273527123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home SA
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 34 30 3 6
Jusuf Nurkic S 26 20 9 5
Kyle Filipowski 26 13 6 2
Isaiah Collier 23 10 1 2
Svi Mykhailiuk S 24 10 2 3
Walter Clayton Jr. 32 8 3 7
Ace Bailey S 27 8 4 4
Kevin Love 21 6 11 2
Cody Williams S 24 5 3 0
Taylor Hendricks 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 26 33 10 1
Stephon Castle S 31 18 2 8
Dylan Harper 25 15 3 5
De'Aaron Fox S 33 14 5 8
Julian Champagnie S 28 13 4 0
Carter Bryant 14 11 3 0
Harrison Barnes S 22 10 1 4
Luke Kornet 22 7 7 4
Keldon Johnson 24 2 3 2
Kelly Olynyk 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes 11-foot floating jump shot (Ace Bailey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
2 Stephon Castle SA
11%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
9%
5 Ace Bailey UTAH
8%
6 Isaiah Collier UTAH
8%
7 Victor Wembanyama SA
8%
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
7%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
10 Cody Williams UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
36%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.3 10.0 3.1
2 Keyonte George UTAH 23.8 4.1 6.6
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.5 5.3 6.7
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 16.6 11.1 5.5
5 Julian Champagnie SA 16.5 8.3 2.4
6 Keldon Johnson SA 16.3 5.7 1.7
7 Stephon Castle SA 16.3 5.1 7.3
8 Ace Bailey UTAH 10.9 3.9 1.4
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 10.8 3.2 6.4
10 Luke Kornet SA 10.1 7.9 2.0
11 Cody Williams UTAH 9.8 3.6 1.3
12 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 9.6 2.5 3.7
13 Harrison Barnes SA 9.0 2.9 2.3
14 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 8.6 5.5 1.5
15 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.2 2.7 1.5
16 Dylan Harper SA 8.2 3.3 2.3
17 Kyle Anderson UTAH 7.9 3.9 2.0
18 Kevin Love UTAH 7.4 5.8 1.4
19 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 4.8 2.8 1.1
20 Lindy Waters III SA 3.7 1.5 0.9
21 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.3 1.7 1.2
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.1 1.3 0.8
23 Carter Bryant SA 3.0 2.0 0.7
24 Jeremy Sochan SA 2.6 1.6 0.8
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.8 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.