NBA games

IND @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
104–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND30252623104
PHI33173231113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home PHI
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 36 25 2 5
Pascal Siakam S 35 24 6 7
Jay Huff S 23 10 6 1
T.J. McConnell 14 10 0 3
Tony Bradley 18 8 7 0
Jarace Walker 22 8 5 2
Aaron Nesmith S 32 7 11 1
Quenton Jackson 25 6 4 3
Johnny Furphy S 14 3 3 1
Ben Sheppard 13 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 33 30 9 4
Tyrese Maxey S 40 29 4 8
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 35 18 1 5
Dominick Barlow S 24 11 7 0
VJ Edgecombe S 35 11 5 4
Jabari Walker 24 5 6 0
Quentin Grimes 20 5 3 1
Adem Bona 15 2 4 0
Trendon Watford 12 2 1 0
Justin Edwards 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
4 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
5 Dominick Barlow PHI
9%
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
7 Jay Huff IND
7%
8 Ben Sheppard IND
7%
9 Quenton Jackson IND
7%
10 Jarace Walker IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
42%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 28.8 7.9 4.3
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.2 4.8 6.3
3 Pascal Siakam IND 24.8 7.4 4.5
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.9 3.9 8.7
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 17.0 5.1 5.5
6 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.9 5.4 2.9
7 Quentin Grimes PHI 12.5 4.5 2.3
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.5 4.3 1.4
9 Jay Huff IND 10.2 3.5 1.4
10 T.J. McConnell IND 9.2 2.3 5.7
11 Jarace Walker IND 8.2 3.3 1.7
12 Micah Potter IND 7.2 3.7 1.7
13 Johnny Furphy IND 7.0 5.3 1.4
14 Dominick Barlow PHI 6.8 4.0 0.9
15 Quenton Jackson IND 6.7 1.8 1.5
16 Ben Sheppard IND 6.3 2.4 1.4
17 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.8 5.9 0.8
18 Andre Drummond PHI 5.7 6.6 0.6
19 Trendon Watford PHI 5.3 2.6 2.4
20 Adem Bona PHI 5.0 4.5 0.8
21 Tony Bradley IND 3.9 3.4 0.6
22 Jared McCain PHI 3.8 1.3 0.8
23 Eric Gordon PHI 3.6 0.5 0.4
24 Jabari Walker PHI 3.1 2.4 0.6
25 Justin Edwards PHI 2.9 1.1 0.5
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.9 0.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.