NBA games

LAC @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
110–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC26282531110
WSH26272825106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home WSH
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 37 36 7 9
Jordan Miller 28 16 5 3
Ivica Zubac S 30 14 12 1
John Collins S 26 11 4 0
Kris Dunn S 39 10 5 4
Kobe Sanders S 22 8 3 1
Brook Lopez 20 6 2 0
Cam Christie 19 6 2 1
Nicolas Batum 19 3 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 31 28 6 2
Kyshawn George S 34 18 6 6
Bub Carrington S 37 17 6 7
Tre Johnson S 30 15 1 5
Khris Middleton S 28 11 5 5
Justin Champagnie 26 9 4 0
Marvin Bagley III 17 6 8 1
Jamir Watkins 19 1 7 1
Will Riley 18 1 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 8-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
14%
2 James Harden LAC
13%
3 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
5 John Collins LAC
9%
6 Tre Johnson WSH
8%
7 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
8 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Kobe Sanders LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
21%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 25.5 4.1 8.3
2 Kyshawn George WSH 17.6 5.2 5.1
3 Alex Sarr WSH 16.7 6.8 2.5
4 John Collins LAC 14.0 5.5 1.4
5 Tre Johnson WSH 13.3 3.1 3.0
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 11.9 9.4 2.2
7 Justin Champagnie WSH 11.6 6.7 1.6
8 Bub Carrington WSH 11.4 3.7 5.0
9 Marvin Bagley III WSH 9.3 5.7 1.3
10 Kris Dunn LAC 9.3 3.0 3.5
11 Jordan Miller LAC 9.2 3.0 1.9
12 Khris Middleton WSH 9.0 3.8 3.1
13 Kobe Sanders LAC 8.6 3.3 2.0
14 Will Riley WSH 6.7 2.8 1.6
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.9 2.7 1.2
16 Brook Lopez LAC 5.4 3.0 1.2
17 Jamir Watkins WSH 5.2 3.1 0.9
18 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.9 3.3 0.7
19 Patrick Baldwin Jr. LAC 4.7 2.7 1.8
20 Malaki Branham WSH 4.6 1.7 1.0
21 AJ Johnson WSH 3.7 1.9 1.0
22 Cam Christie LAC 3.2 1.4 0.7
23 Kobe Brown LAC 2.6 1.3 0.7
24 Anthony Gill WSH 2.3 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.