NBA games

TOR @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
93–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR3024261393
LAL23323223110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home LAL
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 35 22 9 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 24 20 6 2
Brandon Ingram S 34 19 6 7
Collin Murray-Boyles S 25 11 7 5
Immanuel Quickley S 29 9 3 7
A.J. Lawson 6 5 1 0
Jonathan Mogbo 15 4 3 1
Jamal Shead 22 3 1 3
Ochai Agbaji S 25 0 3 1
Jamison Battle 8 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 34 25 2 7
Deandre Ayton S 33 25 13 1
LeBron James S 32 24 4 7
Rui Hachimura 21 10 0 0
Marcus Smart S 25 8 5 3
Gabe Vincent 17 5 1 2
Nick Smith Jr. 2 3 0 0
Drew Timme 16 3 3 2
Jaxson Hayes 13 3 5 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 21 2 9 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Murray-Boyles · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Collin Murray-Boyles makes 2-foot running dunk (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
8%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
8%
5 LeBron James LAL
7%
6 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
7%
7 Maxi Kleber LAL
7%
8 Jake LaRavia LAL
6%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
6%
10 Jamison Battle TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
8%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 30.6 6.0 8.5
2 LeBron James LAL 25.9 6.9 6.8
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.7 6.8 3.6
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.3 9.5 6.6
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.6 3.9 5.4
6 Jake LaRavia LAL 12.2 4.3 2.3
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.5 8.8 1.2
8 Jamal Shead TOR 11.3 2.4 6.0
9 Marcus Smart LAL 10.8 3.9 3.3
10 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 10.4 8.0 3.0
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.6 3.5 1.1
12 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 9.4 4.8 1.9
13 Gradey Dick TOR 7.9 2.8 1.1
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.0 3.4 0.6
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.2 4.2 1.4
16 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.7 2.5 1.0
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.6 1.5 1.0
18 Kobe Bufkin LAL 5.1 2.2 0.8
19 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.5 2.2 0.7
20 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.3 1.2 1.0
21 Alijah Martin TOR 4.2 1.9 0.9
22 Drew Timme LAL 3.7 1.6 0.9
23 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.7 1.4 0.5
24 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.1 2.1 0.7
25 Jamison Battle TOR 3.0 1.3 0.5
26 Bronny James LAL 2.5 1.0 0.6
27 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.8 1.0 0.5
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.