NBA games

POR @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
117–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR32322924117
SAC32212928110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SAC
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 32 30 8 8
Shaedon Sharpe S 34 27 7 0
Donovan Clingan S 37 21 17 3
Toumani Camara S 36 17 3 2
Sidy Cissoko S 34 8 2 1
Caleb Love 22 6 2 1
Rayan Rupert 16 4 2 1
Yang Hansen 9 2 0 1
Javonte Cooke 7 2 1 0
Duop Reath 12 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 26 23 1 2
Russell Westbrook S 34 23 3 7
Zach LaVine S 29 18 0 1
DeMar DeRozan S 35 14 2 7
Dylan Cardwell 26 12 10 2
Domantas Sabonis 20 8 8 2
Maxime Raynaud S 23 6 9 1
Precious Achiuwa S 18 4 3 2
Dennis Schroder 18 2 2 3
Nique Clifford 13 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DeMar DeRozan · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"DeMar DeRozan makes 17-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
12%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
4 Russell Westbrook SAC
10%
5 Maxime Raynaud SAC
10%
6 Zach LaVine SAC
8%
7 Precious Achiuwa SAC
7%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 Kris Murray POR
6%
10 Jrue Holiday POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
24%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 29.3 7.0 7.5
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.7 4.8 4.0
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.8 4.1 5.0
4 Jerami Grant POR 21.5 4.8 3.3
5 Zach LaVine SAC 20.7 3.7 2.7
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.5 11.3 4.7
7 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.8 5.0 6.6
8 Caleb Love POR 17.2 3.9 4.2
9 Jrue Holiday POR 14.7 4.8 6.2
10 Toumani Camara POR 13.7 4.7 2.6
11 Dennis Schroder SAC 13.6 2.7 5.2
12 Donovan Clingan POR 12.7 9.9 2.2
13 Maxime Raynaud SAC 10.5 7.3 1.5
14 Precious Achiuwa SAC 9.8 6.1 1.6
15 Malik Monk SAC 9.4 2.5 2.7
16 Sidy Cissoko POR 9.0 2.7 1.6
17 Kris Murray POR 7.2 3.0 1.3
18 Nique Clifford SAC 6.6 2.6 1.4
19 Robert Williams III POR 6.1 5.7 1.1
20 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.1 7.3 1.2
21 Rayan Rupert POR 5.4 2.2 1.3
22 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.3 0.8
23 Yang Hansen POR 3.4 1.9 0.9
24 Javonte Cooke POR 3.4 1.6 0.9
25 Duop Reath POR 3.3 2.2 0.6
26 Dario Saric SAC 3.2 1.1 0.4
27 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.8 1.5 0.3
28 Devin Carter SAC 2.8 1.2 0.8
29 Doug McDermott SAC 2.5 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.