NBA games

CHA @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
110–87
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA33272723110
DEN1816233087

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home DEN
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 24 23 4 1
Ryan Kalkbrenner 23 17 6 1
Collin Sexton 20 14 2 5
Kon Knueppel S 27 14 4 3
Tidjane Salaun 22 13 11 2
LaMelo Ball S 19 10 1 6
Miles Bridges S 23 7 4 1
Moussa Diabate S 25 4 9 2
Josh Green 13 3 3 0
Pat Connaughton 6 3 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 25 16 1 2
Julian Strawther 20 15 2 2
Jalen Pickett S 34 12 5 7
Peyton Watson S 29 11 4 0
Bruce Brown 18 9 0 3
Zeke Nnaji 23 8 5 1
DaRon Holmes II S 26 7 3 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 13 6 1 2
Spencer Jones S 31 2 6 0
Hunter Tyson 21 1 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
2 Peyton Watson DEN
11%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
6 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
7 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
8 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
8%
9 Jalen Pickett DEN
8%
10 Spencer Jones DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
14%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 27.6 4.5 8.6
2 Peyton Watson DEN 23.9 6.4 3.6
3 Brandon Miller CHA 23.0 5.1 4.1
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.3 4.8 6.2
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.7 5.6 4.2
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.7 6.6 2.7
7 Miles Bridges CHA 16.6 6.3 2.9
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 15.9 3.1 1.8
9 Collin Sexton CHA 15.5 2.6 4.2
10 Jalen Pickett DEN 11.4 3.8 3.4
11 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.4 10.6 2.0
12 Zeke Nnaji DEN 8.6 4.3 1.3
13 Spencer Jones DEN 8.4 3.6 1.2
14 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.2 6.1 1.2
15 Sion James CHA 7.2 3.9 2.8
16 Bruce Brown DEN 6.7 3.7 2.1
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.1 4.5 1.1
18 Tre Mann CHA 5.1 1.8 1.4
19 Josh Green CHA 4.8 2.1 1.1
20 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.4 1.6 1.1
21 Julian Strawther DEN 4.0 1.5 1.0
22 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.6 1.5 0.6
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.3 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.