NBA games

NO @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
110–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO30242630110
HOU32322332119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home HOU
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 35 21 3 4
Zion Williamson S 30 20 6 4
Derik Queen S 27 15 4 5
Jordan Poole 25 13 4 2
Saddiq Bey S 29 11 4 2
Yves Missi 30 10 6 3
Micah Peavy 22 7 3 3
Jordan Hawkins 13 6 3 2
Karlo Matkovic 18 5 3 0
Jeremiah Fears S 10 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Smith Jr. S 41 32 8 0
Alperen Sengun S 33 21 8 4
Amen Thompson S 40 20 8 6
Kevin Durant S 36 18 6 8
Reed Sheppard 18 11 3 1
Dorian Finney-Smith 16 8 3 0
Steven Adams S 27 5 10 2
Josh Okogie 17 4 1 1
Jae'Sean Tate 8 0 0 0
JD Davison 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Amen Thompson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Amen Thompson makes running layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant HOU
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Zion Williamson NO
13%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
5 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
6 Derik Queen NO
9%
7 Jeremiah Fears NO
9%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
9 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
43%
Jumper
33%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 28.3 6.2 5.8
2 Amen Thompson HOU 23.4 8.7 5.2
3 Trey Murphy III NO 23.4 5.9 4.0
4 Zion Williamson NO 22.7 6.3 4.1
5 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.7 9.0 5.6
6 Saddiq Bey NO 15.6 4.4 2.2
7 Jeremiah Fears NO 14.4 4.3 3.7
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.1 7.0 1.9
9 Jordan Poole NO 12.1 2.0 2.9
10 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.4 2.4 2.5
11 Derik Queen NO 10.5 9.0 4.7
12 Bryce McGowens NO 7.5 2.2 1.4
13 Steven Adams HOU 7.2 7.6 1.7
14 Yves Missi NO 5.9 5.8 1.1
15 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.5 3.1 0.7
16 Micah Peavy NO 4.5 1.5 1.0
17 Josh Okogie HOU 4.4 2.7 1.0
18 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.4 2.9 0.9
19 Clint Capela HOU 4.1 4.0 0.9
20 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.9 2.0 0.7
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.5 2.1 0.8
22 JD Davison HOU 3.2 1.9 1.1
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.1 1.2 0.7
24 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.0 1.0 1.1
25 Kevon Looney NO 2.3 4.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.