NBA games

ORL @ MEM

NBA The O2 ·Final
109–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL23302828109
MEM40322826126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MEM
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Black S 37 19 2 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 33 18 7 4
Paolo Banchero S 36 16 8 9
Franz Wagner S 26 14 4 3
Desmond Bane S 37 11 4 3
Jase Richardson 20 11 4 3
Goga Bitadze 15 9 6 1
Noah Penda 8 5 2 0
Tristan da Silva 18 4 3 0
Jamal Cain 3 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 28 24 5 13
Jock Landale 23 21 8 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 17 5 0
Cedric Coward S 23 13 4 3
Jaylen Wells S 21 10 2 0
Cam Spencer 18 10 0 3
Santi Aldama S 25 9 5 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 17 7 1 1
GG Jackson 18 7 4 0
Vince Williams Jr. 20 5 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
2 Ja Morant MEM
10%
3 Cedric Coward MEM
10%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
5 Anthony Black ORL
10%
6 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
8 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
10 Jock Landale MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
32%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.2 10.5 6.3
2 Franz Wagner ORL 24.0 6.2 4.0
3 Anthony Black ORL 22.9 4.5 6.4
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.3 6.5 2.1
5 Desmond Bane ORL 21.0 4.7 5.1
6 Ja Morant MEM 19.8 3.6 8.2
7 Cedric Coward MEM 17.4 7.3 3.5
8 Santi Aldama MEM 14.4 7.0 3.3
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.5 8.0 2.5
10 Cam Spencer MEM 12.0 3.6 7.5
11 Jock Landale MEM 11.8 7.3 2.0
12 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.1 3.3 2.1
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.1 3.0 1.6
14 GG Jackson MEM 9.2 3.1 1.6
15 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 8.5 2.7 1.8
16 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.2 3.4 3.4
17 Noah Penda ORL 6.7 4.4 1.5
18 Jase Richardson ORL 6.7 1.7 1.2
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.1 6.0 1.0
20 Tyus Jones ORL 5.3 1.6 2.3
21 John Konchar MEM 4.9 2.9 1.2
22 Jamal Cain ORL 3.3 1.0 0.5
23 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.0 2.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.