NBA games

LAL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
116–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL27342926116
POR40313625132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home POR
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marcus Smart S 25 25 2 0
Drew Timme 29 21 2 4
LeBron James S 32 20 9 8
Rui Hachimura 19 11 1 1
Maxi Kleber S 21 11 5 1
Kobe Bufkin 22 9 1 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 18 6 2 1
Nick Smith Jr. 10 5 0 3
Dalton Knecht 5 3 0 0
Gabe Vincent S 23 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 29 25 3 4
Caleb Love 31 22 1 7
Jerami Grant 22 22 3 2
Donovan Clingan S 27 18 11 4
Sidy Cissoko S 29 14 5 0
Toumani Camara S 26 9 2 1
Jrue Holiday S 20 9 3 4
Robert Williams III 17 8 6 0
Duop Reath 13 5 5 0
Javonte Cooke 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Maxi Kleber · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Maxi Kleber makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
15%
2 Deni Avdija POR
14%
3 Jake LaRavia LAL
12%
4 LeBron James LAL
10%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
6 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
7 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
8 Kris Murray POR
8%
9 Sidy Cissoko POR
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
20%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 29.0 6.8 9.0
2 LeBron James LAL 26.7 6.5 6.9
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.8 5.0 4.2
4 Jerami Grant POR 22.0 5.0 3.5
5 Caleb Love POR 16.9 3.9 3.9
6 Jrue Holiday POR 15.1 4.8 7.0
7 Jake LaRavia LAL 14.3 4.3 2.5
8 Toumani Camara POR 13.8 4.8 2.7
9 Donovan Clingan POR 12.7 9.7 2.0
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.2 3.8 1.2
11 Marcus Smart LAL 9.6 4.1 3.5
12 Sidy Cissoko POR 8.3 2.7 1.7
13 Kris Murray POR 7.5 3.0 1.4
14 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.7 4.3 1.5
15 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.2 1.6 1.3
16 Robert Williams III POR 6.1 5.9 1.2
17 Rayan Rupert POR 6.0 2.2 1.5
18 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 5.6 1.3 1.0
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.2 1.3 0.9
20 Kobe Bufkin LAL 4.8 2.4 1.0
21 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.1 1.5 0.7
22 Bronny James LAL 4.0 1.1 0.8
23 Yang Hansen POR 3.2 1.9 1.0
24 Javonte Cooke POR 3.0 1.3 0.9
25 Duop Reath POR 2.9 1.8 0.7
26 Drew Timme LAL 2.7 1.7 0.7
27 Maxi Kleber LAL 1.8 1.4 0.6
28 Chris Manon LAL 1.5 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.