NBA games

WSH @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
115–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH29342329115
DEN36262138121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home DEN
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George S 32 29 5 7
Khris Middleton S 27 16 7 4
Alex Sarr S 28 16 8 1
Marvin Bagley III 20 14 6 2
Bub Carrington S 39 13 4 3
Justin Champagnie 26 13 9 1
Will Riley 16 7 2 0
Tre Johnson S 31 4 2 1
Jamir Watkins 21 3 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 39 42 3 6
Tim Hardaway Jr. 36 30 2 0
Peyton Watson S 35 21 5 2
Aaron Gordon S 32 8 10 11
Spencer Jones S 29 7 3 0
Jalen Pickett S 22 5 5 6
Bruce Brown 25 4 3 4
Zeke Nnaji 16 4 6 2
Julian Strawther 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Pickett · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:50 Q1
"Jalen Pickett makes 24-foot three pointer (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
4 Peyton Watson DEN
10%
5 Tre Johnson WSH
10%
6 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
7 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
7%
9 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
10 Spencer Jones DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
74%
Jumper
6%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 27.2 4.9 9.6
2 Peyton Watson DEN 24.3 6.3 3.6
3 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.0 6.6 2.2
4 Kyshawn George WSH 16.8 5.5 5.5
5 Tre Johnson WSH 16.3 3.3 3.3
6 Alex Sarr WSH 16.1 6.6 3.0
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 15.2 3.2 1.9
8 Justin Champagnie WSH 12.1 6.6 1.6
9 Bub Carrington WSH 11.7 3.9 5.6
10 Jalen Pickett DEN 11.1 3.7 3.3
11 Marvin Bagley III WSH 9.7 6.0 1.4
12 Spencer Jones DEN 9.5 4.2 1.5
13 Khris Middleton WSH 9.0 3.5 2.8
14 Zeke Nnaji DEN 8.4 4.1 1.2
15 Bruce Brown DEN 8.1 4.2 2.3
16 Will Riley WSH 7.1 3.0 1.9
17 Malaki Branham WSH 5.1 1.9 1.1
18 DaRon Holmes II DEN 5.1 2.0 1.3
19 Jamir Watkins WSH 5.0 3.0 0.9
20 AJ Johnson WSH 4.1 2.1 1.1
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.4 1.3 0.7
22 Julian Strawther DEN 3.1 1.0 0.8
23 Anthony Gill WSH 2.8 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.