NBA games

CHA @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
116–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA28293722116
GS39304324136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home GS
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 30 28 6 5
Kon Knueppel S 29 24 11 2
Collin Sexton 24 17 3 3
LaMelo Ball 21 15 4 2
Miles Bridges S 30 9 4 2
Grant Williams 18 7 0 2
Pat Connaughton 4 5 1 0
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 24 4 7 3
Tre Mann 4 3 1 2
Tidjane Salaun 17 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Anthony Melton 21 24 6 3
Draymond Green S 27 20 3 6
Brandin Podziemski 30 16 6 7
Stephen Curry S 30 14 3 5
Buddy Hield 18 14 3 1
Moses Moody S 27 12 1 2
Al Horford 19 11 2 1
Will Richard S 31 11 6 5
Quinten Post S 19 7 7 2
Gary Payton II 12 5 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moses Moody · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Moses Moody makes 27-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
19%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
15%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
4 Stephen Curry GS
11%
5 Kon Knueppel CHA
10%
6 Draymond Green GS
8%
7 Moses Moody GS
8%
8 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
9 Quinten Post GS
8%
10 De'Anthony Melton GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
23%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.3 3.6 6.6
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.7 4.6 6.6
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 21.9 5.6 5.1
4 Brandon Miller CHA 21.6 4.7 3.9
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 18.8 4.7 4.0
6 Miles Bridges CHA 18.3 6.9 3.4
7 Collin Sexton CHA 14.2 2.3 4.3
8 De'Anthony Melton GS 12.1 3.7 1.9
9 Draymond Green GS 11.1 5.2 5.4
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.2 3.6 2.4
11 Moses Moody GS 8.3 2.4 1.4
12 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.3 5.9 1.0
13 Al Horford GS 7.3 5.1 1.7
14 Quinten Post GS 7.3 2.1 1.1
15 Jonathan Kuminga GS 7.2 4.4 1.8
16 Sion James CHA 7.1 3.9 2.6
17 Gary Payton II GS 6.9 3.6 1.3
18 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.2 4.5 1.1
19 Grant Williams CHA 5.6 3.8 0.7
20 Will Richard GS 5.5 1.7 1.3
21 Gui Santos GS 5.4 2.9 1.6
22 Josh Green CHA 5.2 2.0 1.2
23 Buddy Hield GS 4.5 1.7 0.9
24 Pat Spencer GS 4.2 1.6 2.4
25 Tre Mann CHA 4.1 1.3 1.0
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.9 3.4 0.6
27 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.5 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.