NBA games

MIN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
123–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN22224039123
SA21482730126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home SA
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 55 4 3
Jaden McDaniels S 41 23 5 5
Julius Randle S 41 17 10 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 36 11 5 3
Joan Beringer 23 10 8 3
Bones Hyland 13 7 1 1
Johnny Juzang 4 0 2 0
Jaylen Clark 10 0 3 2
Mike Conley 21 0 2 3
Naz Reid S 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 39 9 3
De'Aaron Fox S 37 25 3 12
Keldon Johnson 31 20 1 2
Dylan Harper 21 9 3 3
Luke Kornet 19 8 6 2
Stephon Castle S 28 8 6 9
Harrison Barnes S 29 8 8 0
Julian Champagnie S 32 7 5 2
Lindy Waters III 6 2 0 1
Carter Bryant 6 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
14%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
8%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
31%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.6 5.0 4.2
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.6 7.1 5.5
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.2 9.7 2.6
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.3 5.0 5.6
5 Naz Reid MIN 18.0 6.6 3.1
6 Stephon Castle SA 16.5 5.0 6.7
7 Julian Champagnie SA 15.1 7.8 1.8
8 Keldon Johnson SA 13.6 5.7 1.4
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.1 4.8 2.7
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.0 4.7 4.5
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.3 10.9 1.5
12 Luke Kornet SA 9.5 7.3 1.8
13 Dylan Harper SA 8.0 3.0 1.9
14 Harrison Barnes SA 7.9 2.4 2.4
15 Bones Hyland MIN 7.6 1.7 3.0
16 Mike Conley MIN 5.1 1.5 1.9
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.6 2.5 0.8
18 Joan Beringer MIN 3.6 2.4 0.5
19 Harrison Ingram SA 3.4 2.1 0.7
20 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.2 1.2 0.8
21 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.2 1.6 1.1
22 Lindy Waters III SA 3.1 1.2 0.8
23 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.9 1.2 1.2
24 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.7 0.9 0.5
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.5 1.3 0.4
26 Jeremy Sochan SA 2.5 1.6 0.7
27 Carter Bryant SA 2.5 1.6 0.6
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.