NBA games

OKC @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
120–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC37283025120
MIA30303527122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIA
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 39 4 3
Aaron Wiggins 28 18 6 1
Ajay Mitchell 28 15 4 2
Chet Holmgren S 30 14 11 2
Cason Wallace S 22 9 6 3
Jalen Williams S 14 8 3 3
Isaiah Joe 19 8 3 2
Alex Caruso 21 5 4 2
Jaylin Williams 18 2 1 4
Luguentz Dort S 22 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 32 30 12 4
Norman Powell S 35 19 4 4
Pelle Larsson S 30 16 3 2
Andrew Wiggins S 32 15 5 5
Simone Fontecchio 18 13 5 3
Myron Gardner 15 11 5 1
Kel'el Ware 16 7 9 0
Dru Smith 21 5 2 2
Nikola Jovic 15 3 1 2
Kasparas Jakucionis S 27 3 5 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
7 Norman Powell MIA
7%
8 Pelle Larsson MIA
7%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
41%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.0 4.1 6.7
2 Norman Powell MIA 22.3 4.0 3.5
3 Tyler Herro MIA 21.7 4.9 3.6
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.3 5.3 6.4
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 18.9 4.3 4.7
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.9 10.2 1.9
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.7 5.2 3.1
8 Ajay Mitchell OKC 15.4 4.0 3.8
9 Bam Adebayo MIA 14.7 10.0 3.6
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 11.1 4.2 2.9
11 Pelle Larsson MIA 9.8 3.5 2.5
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.0 2.4 6.2
13 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.0 6.9 1.0
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.6 3.8 1.2
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.4 4.0 1.6
16 Alex Caruso OKC 7.2 2.6 1.6
17 Cason Wallace OKC 6.6 3.1 1.9
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.3 5.0 2.0
19 Dru Smith MIA 5.5 2.2 1.8
20 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.4 2.0 0.9
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.3 1.6 1.2
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.0 2.7 0.9
23 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 4.2 2.0 1.7
24 Simone Fontecchio MIA 3.8 2.0 0.7
25 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.9 1.4 0.6
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.4 1.2 0.3
27 Myron Gardner MIA 2.1 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.