NBA games

IND @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
78–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND1114282578
DET31283329121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home DET
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarace Walker S 26 13 5 2
Tony Bradley 18 12 3 1
Ethan Thompson 29 10 5 2
Isaiah Jackson 17 10 5 0
Ben Sheppard S 14 8 0 0
Quenton Jackson S 20 8 1 2
Taelon Peter 17 5 4 2
Johnny Furphy S 24 5 5 0
Jay Huff S 13 3 1 1
Kam Jones 29 2 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duncan Robinson S 22 16 2 2
Javonte Green 20 16 3 0
Cade Cunningham S 21 16 3 5
Jalen Duren S 23 15 8 4
Caris LeVert 20 10 1 4
Marcus Sasser 12 9 1 0
Tobias Harris S 18 7 5 4
Ausar Thompson S 16 7 7 1
Isaiah Stewart 21 7 7 5
Ronald Holland II 24 7 6 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Duncan Robinson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three pointer (Jalen Duren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
12%
5 Paul Reed DET
9%
6 Tobias Harris DET
9%
7 Jay Huff IND
8%
8 Duncan Robinson DET
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Johnny Furphy IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
26%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 28.3 6.1 10.2
2 Pascal Siakam IND 24.5 7.1 4.6
3 Jalen Duren DET 16.5 10.4 1.9
4 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.9 5.4 3.0
5 Tobias Harris DET 12.0 4.4 2.5
6 Duncan Robinson DET 11.3 2.9 1.7
7 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.2 4.7 1.3
8 Jay Huff IND 10.8 3.8 1.5
9 Ausar Thompson DET 10.4 6.1 2.3
10 Ronald Holland II DET 9.8 6.5 1.4
11 Javonte Green DET 9.7 3.2 1.3
12 Jaden Ivey DET 9.0 2.7 1.9
13 Jarace Walker IND 8.2 3.0 1.8
14 Ben Sheppard IND 7.0 2.6 1.5
15 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.7 2.0 3.4
16 Micah Potter IND 6.6 3.2 1.4
17 Johnny Furphy IND 6.6 5.2 1.5
18 Caris LeVert DET 6.4 2.8 2.3
19 Quenton Jackson IND 5.8 1.7 1.5
20 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.3 6.2 0.6
21 Paul Reed DET 4.1 3.6 1.0
22 Marcus Sasser DET 3.9 1.1 1.4
23 Ethan Thompson IND 3.8 1.9 1.3
24 Tony Bradley IND 3.2 3.4 0.7
25 Kam Jones IND 2.5 1.0 0.7
26 Taelon Peter IND 1.5 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.