NBA games

BOS @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
132–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30523515132
ATL23282332106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home ATL
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 30 41 6 2
Sam Hauser S 30 30 6 3
Neemias Queta S 24 14 7 1
Anfernee Simons 24 14 2 1
Baylor Scheierman S 32 9 7 4
Derrick White S 25 7 5 12
Hugo Gonzalez 30 7 8 0
Luka Garza 12 4 4 2
Amari Williams 12 3 4 1
Ron Harper Jr. 6 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 33 21 7 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 29 18 2 6
Corey Kispert 23 16 7 1
Jalen Johnson S 35 12 8 5
CJ McCollum S 27 11 7 4
Asa Newell 9 10 2 0
Mouhamed Gueye 19 5 7 3
Keaton Wallace 13 5 2 2
Caleb Houstan 5 3 0 0
Vit Krejci S 19 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes 19-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
17%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
3 Derrick White BOS
14%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
13%
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
12%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
7 Sam Hauser BOS
8%
8 Vit Krejci ATL
8%
9 CJ McCollum ATL
0%
10 Baylor Scheierman BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
23%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 28.8 6.7 6.3
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.9 8.9 7.5
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 21.1 4.4 4.5
4 CJ McCollum ATL 20.8 3.8 4.2
5 Derrick White BOS 19.2 5.0 5.5
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 18.9 8.5 4.4
7 Anfernee Simons BOS 18.2 3.4 3.8
8 Neemias Queta BOS 11.2 9.8 1.2
9 Sam Hauser BOS 10.6 3.8 1.4
10 Corey Kispert ATL 9.2 2.3 1.7
11 Luka Garza BOS 9.0 4.8 1.1
12 Luke Kennard ATL 8.8 2.0 2.2
13 Vit Krejci ATL 8.6 2.6 1.9
14 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.1 4.1 0.8
15 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.0 3.7 1.0
16 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.3 3.4 1.3
17 Asa Newell ATL 4.1 2.1 0.9
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.9 1.1 1.1
19 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.8 1.6 1.0
20 Josh Minott BOS 3.7 1.7 0.7
21 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.6 1.8 0.8
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.6 1.7 0.7
23 Amari Williams BOS 2.6 2.1 0.6
24 RayJ Dennis ATL 2.0 0.7 0.5
25 Caleb Houstan ATL 1.8 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.