NBA games

UTAH @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
120–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH29303526120
DAL42293532138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home DAL
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 37 29 1 6
Brice Sensabaugh 30 25 6 2
Ace Bailey S 37 18 8 1
Kyle Filipowski S 29 13 12 5
Cody Williams S 28 11 4 2
Isaiah Collier S 22 9 1 4
Kyle Anderson 19 8 2 2
Walter Clayton Jr. 27 5 3 8
Taylor Hendricks 12 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson 20 23 0 3
Brandon Williams S 28 22 4 5
Max Christie S 26 22 2 4
Naji Marshall S 29 16 5 6
Jaden Hardy 17 12 1 3
Dwight Powell S 27 10 8 3
Moussa Cisse 21 9 10 0
Miles Kelly 11 8 3 1
Ryan Nembhard 20 7 1 4
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 20 6 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Naji Marshall · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Naji Marshall makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
10%
2 Brandon Williams DAL
10%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
8%
5 Max Christie DAL
8%
6 Dwight Powell DAL
7%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
7%
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
9 Caleb Martin DAL
7%
10 Cody Williams UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
22%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 24.6 4.4 7.0
2 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 18.5 4.2 2.4
3 Naji Marshall DAL 18.0 4.5 4.1
4 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 17.4 11.3 5.9
5 Brandon Williams DAL 16.7 4.5 3.3
6 Max Christie DAL 14.6 3.9 3.1
7 Klay Thompson DAL 12.6 3.0 2.2
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 11.4 3.6 7.1
9 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 10.4 2.6 3.5
10 Ace Bailey UTAH 10.2 3.4 1.5
11 Cody Williams UTAH 9.1 3.4 1.2
12 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.9 2.8 1.6
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.6 8.0 1.1
14 Kyle Anderson UTAH 8.5 4.4 2.6
15 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 8.5 4.9 1.3
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.2 2.1 1.5
17 Kevin Love UTAH 8.1 6.0 1.6
18 Ryan Nembhard DAL 8.0 2.5 5.1
19 Dwight Powell DAL 5.9 6.0 1.2
20 Caleb Martin DAL 5.9 2.5 1.9
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl DAL 5.8 4.1 1.0
22 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 5.3 3.0 1.1
23 Miles Kelly DAL 5.1 1.9 1.3
24 Moussa Cisse DAL 3.9 5.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.