NBA games

WSH @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
115–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH22392331115
SAC41263427128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home SAC
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 28 19 4 3
Tre Johnson S 30 18 2 4
Justin Champagnie S 27 15 7 2
Kyshawn George S 24 15 8 3
Malaki Branham 13 13 1 0
Bub Carrington S 39 11 2 9
Marvin Bagley III 19 8 4 0
Jamir Watkins 26 6 2 0
Will Riley 22 6 1 2
AJ Johnson 11 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook S 31 26 2 6
DeMar DeRozan S 33 17 2 4
Zach LaVine S 32 16 2 3
Precious Achiuwa S 28 16 6 1
Dennis Schroder 20 15 1 5
Domantas Sabonis 21 13 6 5
Nique Clifford 19 9 7 3
Dylan Cardwell 19 8 9 1
Maxime Raynaud S 22 4 8 5
Malik Monk 16 4 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DeMar DeRozan · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"DeMar DeRozan makes 13-foot fade away jump shot (Maxime Raynaud assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
14%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
4 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
5 Tre Johnson WSH
9%
6 Maxime Raynaud SAC
9%
7 Kyshawn George WSH
9%
8 Zach LaVine SAC
8%
9 Jamir Watkins WSH
7%
10 Khris Middleton WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
28%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.6 4.3 5.1
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.0 11.9 4.7
3 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.7 5.4 6.7
4 Zach LaVine SAC 18.6 3.6 2.6
5 Kyshawn George WSH 16.7 4.8 5.2
6 Alex Sarr WSH 15.6 6.7 2.7
7 Tre Johnson WSH 15.5 3.2 3.2
8 Dennis Schroder SAC 14.0 3.1 5.4
9 Bub Carrington WSH 11.9 4.0 5.0
10 Maxime Raynaud SAC 11.5 7.6 1.5
11 Justin Champagnie WSH 11.4 7.0 1.4
12 Marvin Bagley III WSH 9.3 6.1 1.4
13 Malik Monk SAC 9.2 2.3 2.5
14 Khris Middleton WSH 8.9 3.4 2.7
15 Precious Achiuwa SAC 8.2 5.7 1.6
16 Nique Clifford SAC 6.8 2.6 1.5
17 Will Riley WSH 6.3 2.7 1.5
18 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.1 7.3 1.2
19 Malaki Branham WSH 4.3 1.9 1.1
20 AJ Johnson WSH 3.7 1.8 1.0
21 Dario Saric SAC 3.4 1.2 0.4
22 Jamir Watkins WSH 3.2 2.2 0.5
23 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.1 1.7 0.4
24 Devin Carter SAC 3.0 1.3 0.9
25 Doug McDermott SAC 2.7 0.7 0.5
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.7 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.