NBA games

MIN @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
105–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN34212723105
HOU29242829110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home HOU
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 40 39 4 2
Naz Reid 32 25 9 4
Jaden McDaniels S 35 15 7 4
Rudy Gobert S 32 10 13 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 40 8 8 4
Mike Conley S 26 6 1 1
Bones Hyland 17 2 0 5
Jaylen Clark 11 0 2 0
Joan Beringer 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 40 39 4 7
Alperen Sengun S 32 25 14 3
Amen Thompson S 36 14 7 4
Reed Sheppard 19 14 0 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 38 9 5 2
Clint Capela 12 4 3 1
Jae'Sean Tate 11 4 3 0
Josh Okogie S 33 1 2 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 16 0 3 0
JD Davison 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donte DiVincenzo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot running jump shot (Jaden McDaniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant HOU
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Julius Randle MIN
9%
7 Naz Reid MIN
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
9 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
18%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 27.4 6.5 5.6
2 Amen Thompson HOU 22.6 8.8 5.1
3 Julius Randle MIN 21.8 6.7 6.1
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.3 8.4 5.8
5 Naz Reid MIN 17.4 5.8 2.6
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.3 7.2 1.8
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.2 4.1 2.6
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.1 4.2 4.6
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.7 2.4 3.1
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 8.9 10.1 1.1
11 Bones Hyland MIN 7.2 1.5 2.6
12 Steven Adams HOU 7.0 7.5 1.6
13 Mike Conley MIN 4.7 1.4 1.8
14 Josh Okogie HOU 4.3 2.4 1.0
15 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.1 2.0 0.8
16 Clint Capela HOU 3.3 3.9 0.8
17 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.3 1.9 0.9
18 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 3.2 2.3 0.6
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.2 1.3 1.3
20 Joan Beringer MIN 3.2 2.0 0.4
21 JD Davison HOU 3.1 1.8 1.1
22 Jeff Green HOU 3.1 1.3 0.7
23 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.0 1.0 0.6
24 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.0 1.1 1.0
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.8 1.4 0.5
26 Joe Ingles MIN 2.0 0.8 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.