NBA games

LAC @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
121–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
LAC2428263112121
TOR322928208117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home TOR
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 42 31 2 10
Jordan Miller 46 19 2 6
Cam Christie 20 16 5 1
Ivica Zubac S 39 16 14 2
Kris Dunn S 34 15 4 4
Kobe Sanders S 37 13 3 0
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 14 5 2 0
TyTy Washington Jr. 10 3 1 2
Brook Lopez 13 3 1 0
Kobe Brown 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 41 24 7 6
Brandon Ingram S 41 19 6 2
Jamal Shead S 39 15 4 13
Ochai Agbaji S 36 15 3 1
Gradey Dick 27 15 7 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 22 13 2 1
Collin Murray-Boyles S 35 11 4 3
Alijah Martin 11 5 0 1
A.J. Lawson 13 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Shead · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:05 Q1
"Jamal Shead makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
2 James Harden LAC
13%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
5 John Collins LAC
9%
6 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
8%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
8 Kobe Sanders LAC
7%
9 Jamal Shead TOR
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
22%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 24.7 4.0 7.2
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.7 6.7 3.3
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.2 9.0 6.6
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.2 3.9 5.3
5 John Collins LAC 13.3 5.5 1.3
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.6 8.6 1.8
7 Jamal Shead TOR 10.5 2.1 5.3
8 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 10.3 8.8 2.5
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 9.5 5.5 1.8
10 Kris Dunn LAC 7.7 2.6 3.0
11 Jordan Miller LAC 7.3 3.1 1.3
12 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.7 2.9 1.8
13 Gradey Dick TOR 6.6 2.6 0.9
14 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.0 2.8 1.1
15 Brook Lopez LAC 5.7 3.4 1.3
16 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.0 2.5 0.8
17 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.6 2.2 0.6
18 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.4 3.3 0.6
19 Alijah Martin TOR 4.0 1.9 0.8
20 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.5 1.3 0.6
21 Kobe Brown LAC 2.3 0.9 0.4
22 Cam Christie LAC 2.3 1.2 0.6
23 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.