NBA games

CLE @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
117–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE31242933117
PHI31312924115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home PHI
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylon Tyson S 38 39 5 4
De'Andre Hunter 31 16 3 4
Evan Mobley S 36 15 5 4
Tyrese Proctor 11 13 2 1
Donovan Mitchell S 39 13 9 12
Jarrett Allen S 33 10 7 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 18 9 5 0
Craig Porter Jr. S 22 2 3 11
Lonzo Ball 12 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 33 33 5 3
Tyrese Maxey S 39 22 5 9
Paul George S 30 14 4 5
Quentin Grimes 32 14 7 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. 26 12 2 1
VJ Edgecombe S 35 10 4 4
Adem Bona 15 4 4 0
Trendon Watford 10 4 2 2
Dominick Barlow S 17 2 2 0
Jabari Walker 4 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
15%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
4 Paul George PHI
11%
5 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
7 Dominick Barlow PHI
9%
8 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE
8%
10 Craig Porter Jr. CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
82%
Jumper
4%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 27.8 7.9 4.3
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.7 4.4 6.1
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.0 5.5 6.5
4 Paul George PHI 17.2 5.6 4.3
5 Evan Mobley CLE 17.2 7.7 4.4
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 17.2 4.7 5.5
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.6 8.7 2.5
8 Quentin Grimes PHI 12.5 4.0 2.5
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE 12.3 4.8 2.2
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE 10.9 4.1 2.5
11 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.7 4.4 1.5
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 7.2 4.1 1.1
13 Andre Drummond PHI 6.5 6.7 0.9
14 Lonzo Ball CLE 6.0 3.0 3.1
15 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.0 3.0 0.9
16 Trendon Watford PHI 5.9 2.6 2.4
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.7 4.6 3.4
18 Adem Bona PHI 5.2 4.1 0.8
19 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.9 2.8 1.0
20 Jared McCain PHI 4.7 1.7 1.0
21 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.0 2.2 0.9
22 Justin Edwards PHI 3.7 1.5 0.8
23 Tyrese Proctor CLE 3.7 1.5 1.1
24 Eric Gordon PHI 3.6 0.5 0.5
25 Jabari Walker PHI 3.5 2.6 0.7
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.3 0.8 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.